{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ce0ef77-c70a-4ef3-bf94-cbd1efcdcc49", "symbol": "TG", "name": "Tredegar Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.5, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.019, "architecture_energy": 9.312, "architecture_maturity": 30.19, "architecture_confidence": 55.303, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.18, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 19.34, "deceleration": 40.31, "rotation_down": 28.41, "downward_expansion": 58.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.018667, 7.912, 8.10281, 8.216366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.89, "trend_reference": 8.364, "distance_from_trend": 0.062889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.010705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268061, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.682678, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.039957, "excess_performance": -0.165582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062889, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268061, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1046580, "relative_activity": 1.27949, "balance": 0.683215, "dry_up": 0.938215, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093028, "annualized_volatility": 0.569369, "from_high_reference": -0.155745, "from_low_reference": 0.422377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.364, "fair_value_reference": 7.010705, "structural_low": 7.08, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.003035, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.019139, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.365688, "worst_return": -0.256334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003047, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024523, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.230248, "worst_return": -0.343023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050135, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.451327, "worst_return": -0.50802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -18.022031, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.027038, "energy": 29.697328, "activity_lines": [ 7.780667, 7.881818, 8.232762, 8.316495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.52, "volume": 581247, "typical_volume": 819047.5, "trend": 8.301667, "fair_value": 6.975833, "relative_strength": -14.729252, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.743341, "energy": 42.658563, "activity_lines": [ 7.657333, 7.774364, 8.153333, 8.266043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.68, "volume": 731146, "typical_volume": 819916.25, "trend": 8.310333, "fair_value": 6.980962, "relative_strength": -11.829457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.229395, "energy": 49.988239, "activity_lines": [ 7.632, 7.747455, 8.097048, 8.225935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.59, "volume": 710741, "typical_volume": 814305.2, "trend": 8.318, "fair_value": 6.9875, "relative_strength": -13.31255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.627456, "energy": 48.221064, "activity_lines": [ 7.583333, 7.709455, 8.037524, 8.179462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.89, "volume": 1046580, "typical_volume": 817966.5, "trend": 8.364, "fair_value": 7.010705, "relative_strength": -1.682678, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.018731, "energy": 9.312169, "activity_lines": [ 8.018667, 7.912, 8.10281, 8.216366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }