{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ce3e039-15c5-4103-aac7-71a9f5cc924b", "symbol": "EMH", "name": "European Metals Holdings Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.47, "architecture_energy": 79.064, "architecture_maturity": 28.86, "architecture_confidence": 84.082, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.59, "rotation_up": 9.25, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 80.21, "downward_expansion": 96.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.120833, 0.129773, 0.143942, 0.149151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.157017, "distance_from_trend": -0.23575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.153107, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216236, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.7787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261538, "excess_performance": -0.312774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630065, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250201, "relative_activity": 0.233, "balance": 0.630065, "dry_up": 0.516251, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141853, "annualized_volatility": 0.497157, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.157017, "fair_value_reference": 0.153107, "structural_low": 0.113, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.055118, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.040624, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.305085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090278, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.084543, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.532258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.185403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.206307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.372093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.831595, "energy": 79.137676, "activity_lines": [ 0.135333, 0.146486, 0.153854, 0.157078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 616951, "typical_volume": 1155747.7, "trend": 0.1603, "fair_value": 0.157181, "relative_strength": -22.36125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.526369, "energy": 80.803205, "activity_lines": [ 0.1285, 0.139955, 0.150411, 0.154408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1175, "volume": 616647, "typical_volume": 1128516.3, "trend": 0.158683, "fair_value": 0.155018, "relative_strength": -25.045373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.095086, "energy": 81.669143, "activity_lines": [ 0.123333, 0.134114, 0.146932, 0.151647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 250201, "typical_volume": 1073825.7, "trend": 0.157017, "fair_value": 0.153107, "relative_strength": -23.7787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.469863, "energy": 79.064001, "activity_lines": [ 0.120833, 0.129773, 0.143942, 0.149151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }