{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ce65757-5b3e-4db9-a6bf-85637fe734d4", "symbol": "MLDAM", "name": "Damaris SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.291, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.222, "architecture_energy": 57.11, "architecture_maturity": 44.399, "architecture_confidence": 41.245, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.25, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 66.2, "rotation_down": 64.54, "downward_expansion": 52.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.75, 6.861818, 7.393571, 7.58043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.75, "trend_reference": 7.48, "distance_from_trend": -0.097594, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.369872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.184105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08, "excess_performance": 0.026689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169818, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051841, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.443679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030769, "annualized_volatility": 0.521843, "from_high_reference": -0.241573, "from_low_reference": 0.6875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.48, "fair_value_reference": 7.369872, "structural_low": 6.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073684, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097606, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.167023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.105263, "worst_return": -0.105263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.073684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073684, "worst_return": 0.073684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.396049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052632, "worst_return": -0.052632, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-04-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-14", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.397059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.094737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.393939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"relative_strength": 11.484737, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -35.699947, "energy": 57.452786, "activity_lines": [ 7.16, 7.693636, 7.968571, 7.727204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 7.113333, "fair_value": 7.458333, "relative_strength": 13.028631, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.6309, "energy": 60.269084, "activity_lines": [ 6.886667, 7.472727, 7.839286, 7.709677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 7.205, "fair_value": 7.436218, "relative_strength": 12.324344, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.991296, "energy": 75.485875, "activity_lines": [ 6.75, 7.279091, 7.717143, 7.686237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 7.296667, "fair_value": 7.414103, "relative_strength": 10.999491, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.300793, "energy": 79.03131, "activity_lines": [ 6.75, 7.112727, 7.602143, 7.656882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 7.388333, "fair_value": 7.391987, "relative_strength": 8.452175, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.857315, "energy": 70.069336, "activity_lines": [ 6.75, 6.973636, 7.494286, 7.621613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 7.48, "fair_value": 7.369872, "relative_strength": 5.184105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.221917, "energy": 57.110398, "activity_lines": [ 6.75, 6.861818, 7.393571, 7.58043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }