{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5ceb6172-c477-4862-8c3d-7fea6337517a", "symbol": "605118", "name": "Xiamen Leading Optics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.413, "architecture_energy": 81.941, "architecture_maturity": 23.548, "architecture_confidence": 91.616, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 11.42, "upward_expansion": 20.4, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 72.52, "downward_expansion": 93.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.934667, 30.485149, 34.129825, 36.348441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.9, "trend_reference": 38.301239, "distance_from_trend": -0.219346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.956903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30244, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.291895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262093, "excess_performance": -0.218889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30244, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.935854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22489122, "relative_activity": 1.388434, "balance": 0.411022, "dry_up": 1.112114, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12105, "annualized_volatility": 0.501262, "from_high_reference": -0.395181, "from_low_reference": 0.162068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.301239, "fair_value_reference": 22.956903, "structural_low": 26.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.089193, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.023259, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.132, "worst_return": -0.103359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204906, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.052407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.260639, "worst_return": -0.092377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.227116, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.219324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374656, "worst_return": 0.11548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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15515022.45, "trend": 38.426906, "fair_value": 22.648492, "relative_strength": -3.663477, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.741913, "energy": 44.671317, "activity_lines": [ 33.858939, 34.88096, 38.106199, 38.93661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.66, "volume": 20527781, "typical_volume": 15849679.65, "trend": 38.394906, "fair_value": 22.719816, "relative_strength": -15.812765, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.902615, "energy": 64.300917, "activity_lines": [ 31.930666, 33.168488, 36.932546, 38.241971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.66, "volume": 16140204, "typical_volume": 15524863.15, "trend": 38.356572, "fair_value": 22.79291, "relative_strength": -16.648463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.189063, "energy": 73.063118, "activity_lines": [ 30.308, 31.825104, 35.837464, 37.549396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.15, "volume": 12896628, "typical_volume": 15541389.55, "trend": 38.308239, "fair_value": 22.858041, "relative_strength": -15.348365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.896981, "energy": 86.069793, "activity_lines": [ 29.184667, 30.879544, 34.868049, 36.890908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.9, "volume": 22489122, "typical_volume": 16197470.9, "trend": 38.301239, "fair_value": 22.956903, "relative_strength": -12.291895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.413312, "energy": 81.940732, "activity_lines": [ 28.934667, 30.485149, 34.129825, 36.348441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }