{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cf002c4-89ab-4117-a6b9-00d34ef2ab1e", "symbol": "MEL", "name": "Meli\u00e1 Hotels International, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.646, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -13.115, "architecture_energy": 36.793, "architecture_maturity": 56.447, "architecture_confidence": 84.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.69, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 45.41, "deceleration": 87.52, "rotation_down": 56.36, "downward_expansion": 41.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.413333, 10.864249, 11.076891, 10.730313 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.25, "trend_reference": 10.052695, "distance_from_trend": 0.019627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.372191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.93818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.322581, "excess_performance": 0.148334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.411135, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0511, "annualized_volatility": 0.308089, "from_high_reference": -0.164591, "from_low_reference": 0.508462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.052695, "fair_value_reference": 7.372191, "structural_low": 7.73, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.048263, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.042986, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.081127, "worst_return": -0.182266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.053156, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.07095, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126549, "worst_return": -0.223082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034427, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.006232, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.284274, "worst_return": -0.277269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065161, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135866, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.666855, 11.564674, 11.240431, 10.590514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.6, "volume": 824, "typical_volume": 46.7, "trend": 9.817862, "fair_value": 7.292884, "relative_strength": 1.299001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.966553, "energy": 35.364593, "activity_lines": [ 11.288183, 11.400658, 11.234427, 10.64705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.33, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 46.7, "trend": 9.900195, "fair_value": 7.319113, "relative_strength": -2.58792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.477044, "energy": 23.018429, "activity_lines": [ 10.87299, 11.199007, 11.192256, 10.680091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.41, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 46.7, "trend": 9.981362, "fair_value": 7.34632, "relative_strength": -1.774156, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.04247, "energy": 30.910071, "activity_lines": [ 10.61376, 11.036991, 11.146467, 10.712982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 46.7, "trend": 10.052695, "fair_value": 7.372191, "relative_strength": -5.93818, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.115116, "energy": 36.793218, "activity_lines": [ 10.413333, 10.864249, 11.076891, 10.730313 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }