{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cf2fc4b-ec4f-4c7d-9713-d6435b763766", "symbol": "600933", "name": "IKD Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.639, "architecture_energy": 62.196, "architecture_maturity": 62.134, "architecture_confidence": 91.945, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 15.62, "upward_expansion": 12.17, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 62.38, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.424, 13.844565, 14.743701, 15.460091 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.65, "trend_reference": 16.579084, "distance_from_trend": -0.176673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.67317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.495426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288321, "excess_performance": -0.245117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244954, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50706034, "relative_activity": 0.873861, "balance": 0.384833, "dry_up": 1.029136, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099457, "annualized_volatility": 0.368565, "from_high_reference": -0.44263, "from_low_reference": 0.095506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.579084, "fair_value_reference": 17.67317, "structural_low": 12.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009002, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.027731, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.440065, "worst_return": -0.154482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024756, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.012404, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.860193, "worst_return": -0.268435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.296955, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.145237, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.087023, "worst_return": -0.371468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.431661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.3, "volume": 53046975, "typical_volume": 57188232.0, "trend": 17.191751, "fair_value": 17.833652, "relative_strength": -24.163149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.459037, "energy": 58.509599, "activity_lines": [ 14.138667, 14.614074, 15.456928, 16.168022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.75, "volume": 72223731, "typical_volume": 57713558.1, "trend": 16.987084, "fair_value": 17.774304, "relative_strength": -27.891431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.463585, "energy": 61.897333, "activity_lines": [ 13.562, 14.176499, 15.142392, 15.881457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 62886713, "typical_volume": 57937352.65, "trend": 16.794084, "fair_value": 17.720529, "relative_strength": -23.126685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.603355, "energy": 66.899235, "activity_lines": [ 13.467333, 13.97381, 14.931142, 15.662936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 50706034, "typical_volume": 58025259.75, "trend": 16.579084, "fair_value": 17.67317, "relative_strength": -24.495426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.638964, "energy": 62.195778, "activity_lines": [ 13.424, 13.844565, 14.743701, 15.460091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }