{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5cf52c40-cca6-4f30-a024-a0faff2eea28",
    "symbol": "BRE2L",
    "name": "SG ETC DAILY LONG +2X BRENT OIL FUTURE",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 80.849,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -11.009,
    "architecture_energy": 19.53,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.607,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.672,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.43,
        "rotation_up": 49.33,
        "upward_expansion": 32.93,
        "deceleration": 47.27,
        "rotation_down": 25.5,
        "downward_expansion": 26.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        47.949666,
        44.737454,
        49.043809,
        49.247086
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 41.264999,
    "trend_reference": 45.601333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.095092,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.41229,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356853,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 2.2183,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.894628,
    "excess_performance": 0.723736,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095092,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200088,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.356853,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.737744,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022183,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.901048,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.894628,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.095792,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 700,
      "relative_activity": 0.922448,
      "balance": 0.095792,
      "dry_up": 0.819332,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.21553,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.461684,
      "from_high_reference": -0.462835,
      "from_low_reference": 1.009985
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 45.601333,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.41229,
      "structural_low": 21.780001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.059717,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.264154,
        "worst_return": -0.243464,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.129915,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.226494,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.021188,
        "worst_return": -0.238643,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.125821,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.245994,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.067558,
        "worst_return": -0.184084,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.291421,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.438828,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.291421,
        "worst_return": -0.291421,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013233,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.00447,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006373,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020052,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
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        "return": 0.010204,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": true
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        "trend": 39.093666,
        "fair_value": 29.721296,
        "relative_strength": 56.523504,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.233936,
        "energy": 38.736298,
        "activity_lines": [
          61.017999,
          60.776363,
          55.855166,
          48.360183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 46.555,
        "volume": 27,
        "typical_volume": 2294.4,
        "trend": 39.926833,
        "fair_value": 29.819245,
        "relative_strength": 28.372835,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.55566,
        "energy": 20.08376,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.796332,
          58.369818,
          55.733381,
          48.841559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 39.93,
        "volume": 7000,
        "typical_volume": 2644.4,
        "trend": 40.539167,
        "fair_value": 29.874725,
        "relative_strength": 6.611908,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.028105,
        "energy": 18.731739,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.300666,
          55.108272,
          54.862666,
          48.841763
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 39.93,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2644.4,
        "trend": 41.1515,
        "fair_value": 29.930206,
        "relative_strength": 9.12925,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -8.886643,
        "energy": 29.146587,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.464333,
          52.090727,
          53.905524,
          48.802462
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 32.014999,
        "volume": 31,
        "typical_volume": 2645.95,
        "trend": 41.5,
        "fair_value": 29.93495,
        "relative_strength": -15.277677,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -40.138189,
        "energy": 56.466722,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.141,
          47.674999,
          52.108143,
          48.213011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 32.439999,
        "volume": 150,
        "typical_volume": 2653.45,
        "trend": 41.862667,
        "fair_value": 29.942418,
        "relative_strength": -14.059477,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.014353,
        "energy": 68.343507,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.764333,
          43.746999,
          50.3025,
          47.628494
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 42.794998,
        "volume": 31,
        "typical_volume": 2650.0,
        "trend": 42.5705,
        "fair_value": 30.016264,
        "relative_strength": 14.008321,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.316566,
        "energy": 61.245973,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.304666,
          42.401181,
          49.432285,
          47.688645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 62.470001,
        "volume": 654,
        "typical_volume": 2365.1,
        "trend": 43.934167,
        "fair_value": 30.216232,
        "relative_strength": 63.628197,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.387687,
        "energy": 25.007853,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.653999,
          44.955818,
          50.364,
          48.972484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 51.869999,
        "volume": 1102,
        "typical_volume": 869.35,
        "trend": 44.9445,
        "fair_value": 30.348251,
        "relative_strength": 33.228018,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.002937,
        "energy": 19.9802,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.967333,
          45.625908,
          50.201404,
          49.484473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 41.264999,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 758.85,
        "trend": 45.601333,
        "fair_value": 30.41229,
        "relative_strength": 2.2183,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -11.008786,
        "energy": 19.530426,
        "activity_lines": [
          47.949666,
          44.737454,
          49.043809,
          49.247086
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}