{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cf7516a-fd05-401d-87ec-74d02a26a5ff", "symbol": "XD9U", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.232, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.245, "architecture_energy": 65.603, "architecture_maturity": 87.869, "architecture_confidence": 63.931, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 52.94, "upward_expansion": 82.43, "deceleration": 71.37, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 11.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.452, 193.701637, 190.871762, 186.508774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 198.550003, "trend_reference": 181.368666, "distance_from_trend": 0.094732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 154.349359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.153072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158469, "excess_performance": -0.012423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040606, "read": "Rising" 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.169998, "volume": 64096, "typical_volume": 28516.2, "trend": 179.979, "fair_value": 153.349167, "relative_strength": -2.52634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.357578, "energy": 64.392853, "activity_lines": [ 193.522667, 192.836, 188.88, 184.658172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 190.729996, "volume": 49349, "typical_volume": 28757.1, "trend": 180.616666, "fair_value": 153.820577, "relative_strength": -4.291629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.619281, "energy": 57.957782, "activity_lines": [ 192.679332, 192.561272, 189.550381, 185.351784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.550003, "volume": 51399, "typical_volume": 29000.4, "trend": 181.368666, "fair_value": 154.349359, "relative_strength": -3.153072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.245483, "energy": 65.60263, "activity_lines": [ 194.452, 193.701637, 190.871762, 186.508774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }