{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cf7b9e4-ff57-4a9d-bfce-a097aea54ff5", "symbol": "TBLU", "name": "TORTOISE GLOBAL WATER ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.903, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 16.984, "architecture_energy": 23.046, "architecture_maturity": 7.669, "architecture_confidence": 46.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.08, "rotation_up": 45.34, "upward_expansion": 39.17, "deceleration": 27.88, "rotation_down": 17.0, "downward_expansion": 42.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.8597, 51.568248, 51.095574, 51.279562 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.9739, "trend_reference": 51.891364, "distance_from_trend": 0.020862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.029957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.24489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045924, "excess_performance": -0.171549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020862, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019404, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.939045, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9221, "relative_activity": 0.847904, "balance": 1.939045, "dry_up": 0.606503, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024804, "annualized_volatility": 0.17407, "from_high_reference": -0.069, "from_low_reference": 0.09268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.891364, "fair_value_reference": 47.029957, "structural_low": 48.480705, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000186, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003935, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.081591, "worst_return": -0.089549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018594, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.016892, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.126801, "worst_return": -0.116103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035263, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005023, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125606, "worst_return": -0.171031, 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46.477129, "relative_strength": -12.786544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.634894, "energy": 42.451216, "activity_lines": [ 49.867109, 50.000494, 50.706504, 51.363895 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 51.6194, "volume": 15746, "typical_volume": 13028.25, "trend": 51.867053, "fair_value": 46.55729, "relative_strength": -8.304197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.784442, "energy": 21.175446, "activity_lines": [ 50.506625, 50.202373, 50.703457, 51.347315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.8881, "volume": 8902, "typical_volume": 12759.2, "trend": 51.885401, "fair_value": 46.64477, "relative_strength": -9.451942, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.36376, "energy": 19.417123, "activity_lines": [ 51.091577, 50.480867, 50.744592, 51.348673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.437, "volume": 6171, "typical_volume": 12667.25, "trend": 51.891402, "fair_value": 46.720049, "relative_strength": -11.089592, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.999697, "energy": 23.443727, "activity_lines": [ 51.35879, 50.683346, 50.761404, 51.319744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.6798, "volume": 5322, "typical_volume": 12217.0, "trend": 51.909844, "fair_value": 46.793464, "relative_strength": -8.939713, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.796745, "energy": 20.114682, "activity_lines": [ 51.567711, 50.933279, 50.821354, 51.306092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.9954, "volume": 5162, "typical_volume": 11568.1, "trend": 51.891341, "fair_value": 46.863053, "relative_strength": -9.289553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.053514, "energy": 16.024013, "activity_lines": [ 51.426853, 51.045599, 50.836736, 51.247095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.3108, "volume": 6678, "typical_volume": 10962.0, "trend": 51.890128, "fair_value": 46.940596, "relative_strength": -9.359658, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.731779, "energy": 11.56644, "activity_lines": [ 51.355807, 51.172581, 50.888332, 51.209641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.9739, "volume": 9221, "typical_volume": 10875.05, "trend": 51.891364, "fair_value": 47.029957, "relative_strength": -9.24489, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.984232, "energy": 23.045664, "activity_lines": [ 51.8597, 51.568248, 51.095574, 51.279562 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }