{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cfb0fc0-51a4-4789-b6dd-1d09e411454a", "symbol": "SPPL", "name": "SIMPPLE LTD. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.606, "architecture_energy": 14.258, "architecture_maturity": 66.106, "architecture_confidence": 71.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.82, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 51.12, "deceleration": 93.88, "rotation_down": 36.56, "downward_expansion": 19.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.07, 3.289636, 3.207095, 3.034599 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.54, "trend_reference": 2.91516, "distance_from_trend": -0.128693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.280924, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.774841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.3952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20625, "excess_performance": -0.393704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.774841, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00273, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.393952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 682249, "relative_activity": 0.149281, "balance": 1.524654, "dry_up": 0.076949, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258631, "annualized_volatility": 1.0199, "from_high_reference": -0.637143, "from_low_reference": 0.693333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.91516, "fair_value_reference": 11.280924, "structural_low": 1.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012658, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039787, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.072874, "worst_return": -0.403774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.392713, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.382582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.392713, "worst_return": -0.392713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.419028, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.585045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.419028, "worst_return": -0.419028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.360324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03537, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107649, "active": false 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-14.699434, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.435622, "energy": 41.818729, "activity_lines": [ 3.65, 3.555455, 3.126665, 3.005672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.19, "volume": 210131, "typical_volume": 4516133.0, "trend": 2.983493, "fair_value": 11.44658, "relative_strength": -21.622316, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.395843, "energy": 33.963768, "activity_lines": [ 3.497333, 3.520182, 3.159832, 3.015963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.15, "volume": 400933, "typical_volume": 4533325.3, "trend": 2.951827, "fair_value": 11.391269, "relative_strength": -20.93426, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.408522, "energy": 21.89016, "activity_lines": [ 3.354, 3.469455, 3.189571, 3.026705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.47, "volume": 113375, "typical_volume": 4537364.1, "trend": 2.935827, "fair_value": 11.338811, "relative_strength": -13.364521, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.995663, "energy": 20.083592, "activity_lines": [ 3.352, 3.471818, 3.245881, 3.060136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.54, "volume": 682249, "typical_volume": 4570224.25, "trend": 2.91516, "fair_value": 11.280924, "relative_strength": -39.3952, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.606148, "energy": 14.25837, "activity_lines": [ 3.07, 3.289636, 3.207095, 3.034599 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }