{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cfd67f4-0f12-4b3d-98f6-78b47eacd673", "symbol": "COLO", "name": "GLOBAL X MSCI COLOMBIA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.492, "architecture_energy": 76.723, "architecture_maturity": 25.805, "architecture_confidence": 84.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.74, "rotation_up": 76.08, "upward_expansion": 92.36, "deceleration": 43.34, "rotation_down": 11.27, "downward_expansion": 16.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.738, 44.612319, 42.552555, 41.583576 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.84, "trend_reference": 40.817121, "distance_from_trend": 0.147558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.185739, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.722962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.355158, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.140214, "excess_performance": 0.014589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.722962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.113552, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140214, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.829951, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 782392, "relative_activity": 0.85234, "balance": 3.829951, "dry_up": 0.779947, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054567, "annualized_volatility": 0.278598, "from_high_reference": -0.011814, "from_low_reference": 0.618581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.817121, "fair_value_reference": 27.185739, "structural_low": 34.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.020724, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.016325, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.175263, "worst_return": -0.108167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015997, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.018369, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.17512, "worst_return": -0.201479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.134654, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.032944, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.406243, "worst_return": -0.403527, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 55.88609, "activity_lines": [ 43.512762, 42.528157, 40.978369, 40.48287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.31, "volume": 514726, "typical_volume": 947292.25, "trend": 40.149121, "fair_value": 26.821291, "relative_strength": 11.463144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.933072, "energy": 59.709119, "activity_lines": [ 43.861572, 43.097158, 41.393066, 40.768086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.47, "volume": 754041, "typical_volume": 924540.8, "trend": 40.520788, "fair_value": 27.001574, "relative_strength": 14.932422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.917989, "energy": 76.200093, "activity_lines": [ 44.902, 43.905909, 41.976763, 41.175885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.84, "volume": 782392, "typical_volume": 917934.2, "trend": 40.817121, "fair_value": 27.185739, "relative_strength": 11.355158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.491859, "energy": 76.723471, "activity_lines": [ 45.738, 44.612319, 42.552555, 41.583576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }