{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cfde3dc-6acb-4e01-9700-01d9b8ca1677", "symbol": "CMRS", "name": "Critical Mineral Resources PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.909, "architecture_energy": 53.719, "architecture_maturity": 63.94, "architecture_confidence": 95.243, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.9, "rotation_up": 13.71, "upward_expansion": 10.81, "deceleration": 39.98, "rotation_down": 58.9, "downward_expansion": 81.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0179, 0.018709, 0.02016, 0.021042 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.019, "trend_reference": 0.022333, "distance_from_trend": -0.149254, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021497, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.49468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22449, "excess_performance": -0.275725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.316005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1298415, "relative_activity": 0.292259, "balance": 0.316005, "dry_up": 0.739554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204858, "annualized_volatility": 0.736891, "from_high_reference": -0.654545, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022333, "fair_value_reference": 0.021497, "structural_low": 0.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.059658, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.222222, "worst_return": -0.509091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.064027, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.041667, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.239316, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.208376, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.375, "worst_return": -0.566667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.019, 0.019564, 0.020898, 0.021733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 4515045, "typical_volume": 4588340.3, "trend": 0.02265, "fair_value": 0.021583, "relative_strength": -47.409342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.283956, "energy": 55.429664, "activity_lines": [ 0.017867, 0.018791, 0.020367, 0.021277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.019, "volume": 1298415, "typical_volume": 4442680.9, "trend": 0.022333, "fair_value": 0.021497, "relative_strength": -37.49468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.908628, "energy": 53.718524, "activity_lines": [ 0.0179, 0.018709, 0.02016, 0.021042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }