{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5cfeeb5b-7a71-4687-bebc-d5894be8e82d", "symbol": "GRX", "name": "GreenX Metals Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.039, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.173, "architecture_energy": 26.341, "architecture_maturity": 9.542, "architecture_confidence": 71.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.46, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 9.72, "deceleration": 51.55, "rotation_down": 50.96, "downward_expansion": 68.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.472, 0.479455, 0.483071, 0.482409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.475, "trend_reference": 0.484333, "distance_from_trend": -0.01927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.436346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.962079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040404, "excess_performance": -0.091639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.972143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62094, "relative_activity": 0.533137, "balance": 2.972143, "dry_up": 1.316637, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087061, "annualized_volatility": 0.238597, "from_high_reference": -0.181034, "from_low_reference": 0.388889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.484333, "fair_value_reference": 0.436346, "structural_low": 0.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.025166, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.119048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088995, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.045791, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.377778, "worst_return": -0.035714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036423, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.088889, "worst_return": -0.041237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0191, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054503, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.237113, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.49, "volume": 56235, "typical_volume": 141406.2, "trend": 0.443833, "fair_value": 0.206594, "relative_strength": 42.640932, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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0.487667, 0.492273, 0.486167, 0.485333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.475, "volume": 206102, "typical_volume": 145238.95, "trend": 0.483167, "fair_value": 0.437115, "relative_strength": 0.928073, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.667135, "energy": 8.621437, "activity_lines": [ 0.481, 0.489364, 0.485524, 0.484935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.465, "volume": 110065, "typical_volume": 129064.1, "trend": 0.484833, "fair_value": 0.436859, "relative_strength": -2.446529, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.506954, "energy": 21.815946, "activity_lines": [ 0.473, 0.484636, 0.484, 0.483763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.475, "volume": 235129, "typical_volume": 129796.65, "trend": 0.486167, "fair_value": 0.436635, "relative_strength": -1.611357, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.318085, "energy": 25.457412, "activity_lines": [ 0.472, 0.482091, 0.483524, 0.483129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.475, "volume": 62094, "typical_volume": 116469.1, "trend": 0.484333, "fair_value": 0.436346, "relative_strength": -1.962079, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.172504, "energy": 26.341181, "activity_lines": [ 0.472, 0.479455, 0.483071, 0.482409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }