{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d049101-0288-445d-823a-bc5cbcd1b800", "symbol": "EIDO", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI INDONESIA ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.505, "architecture_energy": 29.4, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.796, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.11, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 22.66, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 26.46, "downward_expansion": 58.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.5, 12.25105, 12.650031, 13.398831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.91, "trend_reference": 14.585211, "distance_from_trend": -0.114857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.736111, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.313421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.253331, "excess_performance": -0.378956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.981755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6016942, "relative_activity": 0.948575, "balance": 0.981755, "dry_up": 1.010064, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063343, "annualized_volatility": 0.348508, "from_high_reference": -0.31857, "from_low_reference": 0.225875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.585211, "fair_value_reference": 17.736111, "structural_low": 10.531257, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.025584, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.001414, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.097038, "worst_return": -0.145103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043129, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.034921, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.149533, "worst_return": -0.163176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030448, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.073786, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156665, "worst_return": -0.01805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -62.615163, "energy": 59.675517, "activity_lines": [ 12.0, 12.034382, 12.957669, 13.875925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.26, "volume": 5866934, "typical_volume": 6131303.55, "trend": 14.981015, "fair_value": 17.837594, "relative_strength": -30.038691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.963867, "energy": 52.301113, "activity_lines": [ 12.086, 12.037807, 12.814796, 13.687761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.37, "volume": 6576778, "typical_volume": 6168871.4, "trend": 14.777388, "fair_value": 17.784692, "relative_strength": -29.530391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.364411, "energy": 42.605413, "activity_lines": [ 12.22, 12.090887, 12.69985, 13.519308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.91, "volume": 6016942, "typical_volume": 6343141.1, "trend": 14.585211, "fair_value": 17.736111, "relative_strength": -28.313421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.50469, "energy": 29.400259, "activity_lines": [ 12.5, 12.25105, 12.650031, 13.398831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }