{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5d0802eb-a8d9-46ce-8311-494096ee0458",
    "symbol": "XDER",
    "name": "Xtrackers FTSE Developed Europe Real Estate UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 50.739,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 33.286,
    "architecture_energy": 40.553,
    "architecture_maturity": 5.69,
    "architecture_confidence": 48.121,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.47,
        "rotation_up": 58.17,
        "upward_expansion": 54.44,
        "deceleration": 27.35,
        "rotation_down": 19.92,
        "downward_expansion": 15.1
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2162.633333,
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        2123.860476,
        2123.031074
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 2177.25,
    "trend_reference": 2132.214998,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.021121,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1999.404233,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088949,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.188269,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.004686,
    "excess_performance": -0.055921,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021121,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005861,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088949,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026715,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051883,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017978,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004686,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.963357,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 10016,
      "relative_activity": 2.333753,
      "balance": 0.963357,
      "dry_up": 1.130819,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030101,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224738,
      "from_high_reference": -0.120129,
      "from_low_reference": 0.127525
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2132.214998,
      "fair_value_reference": 1999.404233,
      "structural_low": 1931.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.013224,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037079,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.086804,
        "worst_return": -0.14142,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.026612,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.065012,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.039808,
        "worst_return": -0.093031,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.041671,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.103022,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.038088,
        "worst_return": -0.121431,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.002079,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.091793,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.024696,
        "worst_return": -0.028854,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.049525,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04418,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044447,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.056274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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        "return": -0.00086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-10-24",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "active": true
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    ],
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        "relative_strength": -9.849675,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 37.27328,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -7.281182,
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      {
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      {
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        "relative_strength": -5.360511,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 2130.0,
        "volume": 1113,
        "typical_volume": 4684.65,
        "trend": 2125.048332,
        "fair_value": 1990.888207,
        "relative_strength": -5.38046,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 9.293787,
        "energy": 16.646172,
        "activity_lines": [
          2130.0,
          2113.15,
          2103.265713,
          2114.882902
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2155.25,
        "volume": 3124,
        "typical_volume": 4414.8,
        "trend": 2127.898332,
        "fair_value": 1993.559041,
        "relative_strength": -5.218876,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.407537,
        "energy": 28.405583,
        "activity_lines": [
          2140.583333,
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          2108.689761,
          2116.831396
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2178.0,
        "volume": 5160,
        "typical_volume": 3905.1,
        "trend": 2131.256665,
        "fair_value": 1996.447502,
        "relative_strength": -5.152338,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.610972,
        "energy": 34.70473,
        "activity_lines": [
          2152.566667,
          2135.536364,
          2116.525714,
          2120.063762
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2177.25,
        "volume": 10016,
        "typical_volume": 4291.8,
        "trend": 2132.214998,
        "fair_value": 1999.404233,
        "relative_strength": -5.188269,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.28623,
        "energy": 40.552625,
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          2162.633333,
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          2123.031074
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}