{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d0df44d-8720-44e7-bc0c-58980a878ebb", "symbol": "RVRG", "name": "River Global Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.04, "architecture_energy": 67.491, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.207, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 10.05, "upward_expansion": 14.84, "deceleration": 38.29, "rotation_down": 70.2, "downward_expansion": 88.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.248333, 0.301273, 0.378536, 0.39893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.4195, "distance_from_trend": -0.404052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.440571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.370573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.418605, "excess_performance": -0.46984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.404052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.444387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.523706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418605, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219769, "relative_activity": 0.353875, "balance": 1.44812, "dry_up": 0.507528, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.484462, "annualized_volatility": 1.497247, "from_high_reference": -0.642857, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4195, "fair_value_reference": 0.440571, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01412, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.24359, "worst_return": -0.481203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014842, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062883, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.112903, "worst_return": -0.385185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.197333, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.8125, "worst_return": -0.464516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.983223, "energy": 67.397643, "activity_lines": [ 0.305, 0.392, 0.431, 0.43464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.25, "volume": 552297, "typical_volume": 1258419.45, "trend": 0.4345, "fair_value": 0.44291, "relative_strength": -53.544651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.266021, "energy": 71.814697, "activity_lines": [ 0.265, 0.356818, 0.412976, 0.422253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 324563, "typical_volume": 1221616.25, "trend": 0.427, "fair_value": 0.441692, "relative_strength": -53.184724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.192838, "energy": 75.058772, "activity_lines": [ 0.245, 0.326636, 0.395548, 0.410349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 219769, "typical_volume": 621035.85, "trend": 0.4195, "fair_value": 0.440571, "relative_strength": -52.370573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.03959, "energy": 67.491085, "activity_lines": [ 0.248333, 0.301273, 0.378536, 0.39893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }