{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d103168-a3d6-402a-9510-8188b4ca091a", "symbol": "IBHG", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 2027 TERM HIGH YIELD AND INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.556, "architecture_energy": 18.642, "architecture_maturity": 11.902, "architecture_confidence": 50.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.02, "rotation_up": 39.37, "upward_expansion": 63.79, "deceleration": 57.83, "rotation_down": 23.13, "downward_expansion": 11.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.911598, 21.904547, 21.90612, 21.885881 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.96, "trend_reference": 21.859795, "distance_from_trend": 0.004584, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.401666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.098265, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007071, "excess_performance": -0.118554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.324253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 985175, "relative_activity": 1.37389, "balance": 1.324253, "dry_up": 0.937013, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005692, "annualized_volatility": 0.01573, "from_high_reference": -0.00727, "from_low_reference": 0.03088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.859795, "fair_value_reference": 20.401666, "structural_low": 21.681523, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028683, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022323, "worst_return": 0.004665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040969, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067193, "worst_return": 0.010164, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.061233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069274, "worst_return": 0.053193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.726476, "energy": 13.559691, "activity_lines": [ 21.886384, 21.898901, 21.895144, 21.873548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.872968, "volume": 511642, "typical_volume": 694451.0, "trend": 21.8497, "fair_value": 20.351057, "relative_strength": -6.905074, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.843994, "energy": 10.567788, "activity_lines": [ 21.877883, 21.893278, 21.895503, 21.875312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.907798, "volume": 637358, "typical_volume": 698935.55, "trend": 21.854284, "fair_value": 20.376207, "relative_strength": -7.469601, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.015929, "energy": 9.997027, "activity_lines": [ 21.885242, 21.893958, 21.898735, 21.87906 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.96, "volume": 985175, "typical_volume": 717069.8, "trend": 21.859795, "fair_value": 20.401666, "relative_strength": -10.098265, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.555608, "energy": 18.641935, "activity_lines": [ 21.911598, 21.904547, 21.90612, 21.885881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }