{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d13725c-8217-4d32-8b85-12ca4bcfc5ab", "symbol": "FLMX", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE MEXICO ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.134, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.13, "architecture_energy": 10.634, "architecture_maturity": 27.227, "architecture_confidence": 74.496, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.46, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 29.31, "deceleration": 31.59, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 47.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.230073, 37.077047, 37.154476, 37.170533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.6992, "trend_reference": 37.282496, "distance_from_trend": 0.011177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.694924, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26955, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.087513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035826, "excess_performance": -0.161451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26955, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.286148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49303, "relative_activity": 0.862753, "balance": 1.286148, "dry_up": 0.584965, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034357, "annualized_volatility": 0.22661, "from_high_reference": -0.058226, "from_low_reference": 0.299658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.282496, "fair_value_reference": 29.694924, "structural_low": 34.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033679, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.140308, "worst_return": -0.113407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.121639, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.140985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191304, "worst_return": -0.170241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.163695, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.162078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250533, "worst_return": -0.217755, "sufficient": false }, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.614106, "energy": 15.134708, "activity_lines": [ 36.867561, 36.995356, 37.088189, 37.145109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.6375, "volume": 21494, "typical_volume": 87911.55, "trend": 37.002658, "fair_value": 29.524535, "relative_strength": -2.716167, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.583151, "energy": 23.105198, "activity_lines": [ 36.714833, 36.901254, 37.050519, 37.128083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.6736, "volume": 16183, "typical_volume": 76652.9, "trend": 37.067422, "fair_value": 29.571735, "relative_strength": -2.160278, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.816081, "energy": 26.68704, "activity_lines": [ 36.648813, 36.843111, 37.030704, 37.106854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.54, "volume": 46734, "typical_volume": 66034.15, "trend": 37.184756, "fair_value": 29.631659, "relative_strength": -1.075408, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.191237, "energy": 18.288085, "activity_lines": [ 36.9419, 36.947996, 37.091195, 37.137343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.6992, "volume": 49303, "typical_volume": 57146.15, "trend": 37.282496, "fair_value": 29.694924, "relative_strength": -4.087513, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.129782, "energy": 10.634017, "activity_lines": [ 37.230073, 37.077047, 37.154476, 37.170533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }