{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d253ecc-58d7-483e-b500-b6ece4b95b27", "symbol": "CNHI", "name": "CNH Industrial N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.819, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.171, "architecture_energy": 4.624, "architecture_maturity": 19.095, "architecture_confidence": 73.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.98, "rotation_up": 33.85, "upward_expansion": 25.08, "deceleration": 34.55, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 25.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.318667, 9.333818, 9.241733, 9.252769 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.47, "trend_reference": 9.307677, "distance_from_trend": 0.01744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.817316, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.042226, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072179, "excess_performance": -0.246426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046855, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035378, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044381, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.708678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11688, "relative_activity": 3.949382, "balance": 1.708678, "dry_up": 2.542026, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058371, "annualized_volatility": 0.356318, "from_high_reference": -0.127347, "from_low_reference": 0.232373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.307677, "fair_value_reference": 9.817316, "structural_low": 8.310062, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.027071, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.010392, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.178474, "worst_return": -0.1329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.049699, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.021269, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.254393, "worst_return": -0.239798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.138458, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.266773, 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0.128736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066454, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.246663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084291, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010672, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.994648, "volume": 774, "typical_volume": 258.7, "trend": 12.281924, "fair_value": 10.794593, "relative_strength": -9.68894, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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"trend": 9.180227, "fair_value": 9.865652, "relative_strength": -15.374793, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.714399, "energy": 32.815761, "activity_lines": [ 9.332, 9.277794, 9.184483, 9.230953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.68, "volume": 6399, "typical_volume": 2164.25, "trend": 9.243164, "fair_value": 9.849241, "relative_strength": -12.3886, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.65587, "energy": 27.015935, "activity_lines": [ 9.447333, 9.367273, 9.235988, 9.263196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.89, "volume": 5466, "typical_volume": 2375.05, "trend": 9.278463, "fair_value": 9.830965, "relative_strength": -18.584035, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.499046, "energy": 8.939298, "activity_lines": [ 9.259333, 9.299273, 9.210667, 9.240411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.47, "volume": 11688, "typical_volume": 2959.45, "trend": 9.307677, "fair_value": 9.817316, "relative_strength": -15.042226, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.170918, "energy": 4.624265, "activity_lines": [ 9.318667, 9.333818, 9.241733, 9.252769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }