{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d2893fb-5664-4785-a6a2-72278d947a5e", "symbol": "HRL-F77", "name": "Harel Index Funds - KSM Stoxx ERP 600 Automobile ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.212, "architecture_energy": 66.871, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.85, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.72, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.754667, 81.451455, 912.90681, 1442.918344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.1, "trend_reference": 2049.752, "distance_from_trend": -0.984827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2557.465128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.858514, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989633, "excess_performance": -1.018534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.044526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.719386, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999091, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186810, "relative_activity": 1.832203, "balance": 0.999091, "dry_up": 2.01045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.681746, "annualized_volatility": 6.366677, "from_high_reference": -0.990032, "from_low_reference": 0.081363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2049.752, "fair_value_reference": 2557.465128, "structural_low": 28.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011705, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.021451, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.146224, "worst_return": -0.989675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007187, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013909, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.162273, "worst_return": -0.117373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001543, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049311, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128621, "worst_return": -0.062681, "sufficient": false 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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217.020667, 1094.943818, 1857.319571, 2188.749054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.04, "volume": 64720, "typical_volume": 72447.0, "trend": 2439.632, "fair_value": 2617.397179, "relative_strength": -98.978663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333134, "energy": 88.56622, "activity_lines": [ 29.572667, 790.407091, 1639.709476, 2027.063634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.92, "volume": 230374, "typical_volume": 81141.25, "trend": 2342.996, "fair_value": 2602.47359, "relative_strength": -98.978542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.331484, "energy": 88.560067, "activity_lines": [ 29.748667, 536.993273, 1436.640143, 1871.598344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.38, "volume": 172502, "typical_volume": 87344.95, "trend": 2245.808667, "fair_value": 2587.552949, "relative_strength": -98.964145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.988531, "energy": 77.688788, "activity_lines": [ 30.010667, 334.555455, 1248.305476, 1722.397312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.2, "volume": 230250, "typical_volume": 95065.5, "trend": 2148.415333, "fair_value": 2572.323462, "relative_strength": -98.880105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.617044, "energy": 67.512728, "activity_lines": [ 30.460667, 182.623455, 1073.804238, 1579.519333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.1, "volume": 186810, "typical_volume": 101959.25, "trend": 2049.752, "fair_value": 2557.465128, "relative_strength": -98.858514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.211782, "energy": 66.871105, "activity_lines": [ 30.754667, 81.451455, 912.90681, 1442.918344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }