{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d298712-79a8-4d68-814f-6bd03f834d11", "symbol": "TRAC", "name": "t42 IoT Tracking Solutions PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.156, "architecture_energy": 15.039, "architecture_maturity": 41.572, "architecture_confidence": 74.614, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.91, "rotation_up": 15.28, "upward_expansion": 42.13, "deceleration": 75.4, "rotation_down": 39.76, "downward_expansion": 36.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.036767, 0.037982, 0.039369, 0.037537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.033867, "distance_from_trend": 0.062992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.03186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129934, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.425166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.714286, "excess_performance": 0.66305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062992, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129934, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184252, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.52839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.714286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.336375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 350188, "relative_activity": 0.169837, "balance": 1.336375, "dry_up": 0.561163, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121603, "annualized_volatility": 0.858449, "from_high_reference": -0.31219, "from_low_reference": 1.164762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033867, "fair_value_reference": 0.03186, "structural_low": 0.01663, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.105769, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.11227, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.160714, "worst_return": -0.262295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.205714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.238921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.367143, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.420779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.214286, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.556786, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.682266, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.553571, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.314286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.209402, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": 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26.081896, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.383232, "energy": 13.231598, "activity_lines": [ 0.038567, 0.0396, 0.039852, 0.036774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.037, "volume": 1273113, "typical_volume": 2839249.3, "trend": 0.0329, "fair_value": 0.031998, "relative_strength": 25.232166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.0683, "energy": 15.286714, "activity_lines": [ 0.037667, 0.038991, 0.039786, 0.037071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 719609, "typical_volume": 2369989.1, "trend": 0.033383, "fair_value": 0.031934, "relative_strength": 24.492791, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.389358, "energy": 15.679236, "activity_lines": [ 0.037333, 0.038609, 0.039676, 0.037368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 350188, "typical_volume": 2061911.9, "trend": 0.033867, "fair_value": 0.03186, "relative_strength": 18.425166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.155918, "energy": 15.039035, "activity_lines": [ 0.036767, 0.037982, 0.039369, 0.037537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }