{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d2abec8-e302-4b19-ad1d-ffcf1ca36d05", "symbol": "MZZ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT MIDCAP 400 NEW APRIL 2021(R/S", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.235, "architecture_energy": 50.985, "architecture_maturity": 68.582, "architecture_confidence": 83.748, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.21, "rotation_up": 28.03, "upward_expansion": 7.49, "deceleration": 57.04, "rotation_down": 45.17, "downward_expansion": 76.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.898453, 5.921725, 6.071789, 6.311471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.675, "trend_reference": 6.578091, "distance_from_trend": -0.137288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.338102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.938189, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.148709, "excess_performance": -0.274334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.299382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148709, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.481377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28677, "relative_activity": 0.559697, "balance": 1.481377, "dry_up": 0.351799, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052969, "annualized_volatility": 0.270854, "from_high_reference": -0.360005, "from_low_reference": 0.000882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.578091, "fair_value_reference": 9.338102, "structural_low": 5.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.013773, "positive_rate": 0.475, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.022464, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.251549, "worst_return": -0.138763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028491, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.041494, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.292205, "worst_return": -0.104722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062537, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.138799, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.287042, "worst_return": -0.154789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-25.373258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.783667, "energy": 53.269999, "activity_lines": [ 5.949987, 5.995575, 6.242369, 6.462355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.9798, "volume": 27418, "typical_volume": 52955.15, "trend": 6.681877, "fair_value": 9.418218, "relative_strength": -24.519493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.777888, "energy": 46.887579, "activity_lines": [ 5.965587, 5.976858, 6.185804, 6.413683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.0506, "volume": 6006, "typical_volume": 51154.0, "trend": 6.628011, "fair_value": 9.380098, "relative_strength": -23.593538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.973939, "energy": 37.7285, "activity_lines": [ 6.00064, 5.980933, 6.142748, 6.372956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.675, "volume": 28677, "typical_volume": 51236.65, "trend": 6.578091, "fair_value": 9.338102, "relative_strength": -29.938189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.234599, "energy": 50.985361, "activity_lines": [ 5.898453, 5.921725, 6.071789, 6.311471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }