{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d33c1c1-9724-44cf-9c07-7a5a72111579", "symbol": "MAPS", "name": "Maps S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.084, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.743, "architecture_energy": 19.34, "architecture_maturity": 28.466, "architecture_confidence": 54.933, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.76, "rotation_up": 33.77, "upward_expansion": 34.81, "deceleration": 41.48, "rotation_down": 30.22, "downward_expansion": 21.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.717333, 2.721636, 2.649714, 2.612323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.71, "trend_reference": 2.625333, "distance_from_trend": 0.03225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.923333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.326362, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087542, "excess_performance": -0.258434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03225, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131577, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.231018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17061, "relative_activity": 0.454653, "balance": 5.231018, "dry_up": 0.42063, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047403, "annualized_volatility": 0.276573, "from_high_reference": -0.286842, "from_low_reference": 0.215247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.625333, "fair_value_reference": 2.923333, "structural_low": 2.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003704, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015934, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.119718, "worst_return": -0.00641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213235, "worst_return": -0.080128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286765, "worst_return": -0.185897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019231, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019231, "worst_return": 0.019231, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.038576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.186747, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003704, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.11, "volume": 23886, "typical_volume": 22620.95, "trend": 3.364, "fair_value": 3.16016, "relative_strength": -16.453688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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2.643273, 2.561143, 2.592108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.76, "volume": 21410, "typical_volume": 43337.4, "trend": 2.673333, "fair_value": 2.936859, "relative_strength": -20.324923, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.114823, "energy": 50.373388, "activity_lines": [ 2.74, 2.677636, 2.584286, 2.596817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.71, "volume": 20780, "typical_volume": 42781.3, "trend": 2.660333, "fair_value": 2.93359, "relative_strength": -19.895887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.3897, "energy": 29.858114, "activity_lines": [ 2.726, 2.696545, 2.602, 2.599183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.73, "volume": 13596, "typical_volume": 40531.5, "trend": 2.648667, "fair_value": 2.930321, "relative_strength": -18.409815, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.687303, "energy": 28.608447, "activity_lines": [ 2.724667, 2.712909, 2.620905, 2.603677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.71, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 39482.05, "trend": 2.637333, "fair_value": 2.926667, "relative_strength": -18.762836, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.754173, "energy": 26.502757, "activity_lines": [ 2.721333, 2.719273, 2.636238, 2.607634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.71, "volume": 17061, "typical_volume": 37525.3, "trend": 2.625333, "fair_value": 2.923333, "relative_strength": -20.326362, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.742634, "energy": 19.340054, "activity_lines": [ 2.717333, 2.721636, 2.649714, 2.612323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }