{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d34df53-fa6f-440c-aec2-1a6b0cb980f5", "symbol": "BLCO", "name": "Bausch + Lomb Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.449, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.849, "architecture_energy": 23.543, "architecture_maturity": 9.776, "architecture_confidence": 45.667, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.04, "rotation_up": 49.96, "upward_expansion": 42.2, "deceleration": 28.1, "rotation_down": 18.46, "downward_expansion": 17.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.586667, 16.397455, 16.181333, 16.23972 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.78, "trend_reference": 16.415667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.931026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.983829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012941, "excess_performance": -0.138566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005914, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053291, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054743, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069838, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1555983, "relative_activity": 0.734618, "balance": 0.471004, "dry_up": 1.047394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057371, "annualized_volatility": 0.282778, "from_high_reference": -0.112873, "from_low_reference": 0.240207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.415667, "fair_value_reference": 15.931026, "structural_low": 14.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.046763, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.021491, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.25209, "worst_return": -0.040466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030484, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00829, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.196141, "worst_return": -0.061849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234532, "worst_return": -0.02572, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03198, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.23, "volume": 2489942, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 15.526, 15.649636, 15.929619, 16.192043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 17.16, "volume": 1717174, "typical_volume": 2194666.3, "trend": 16.502, "fair_value": 16.034551, "relative_strength": -1.372118, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.06826, "energy": 7.878287, "activity_lines": [ 16.087333, 15.902364, 16.015714, 16.235226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.23, "volume": 1577281, "typical_volume": 2106680.6, "trend": 16.476667, "fair_value": 16.004872, "relative_strength": -7.897754, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.529008, "energy": 18.0, "activity_lines": [ 16.238, 15.961636, 16.012619, 16.217677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.26, "volume": 1976105, "typical_volume": 2105899.15, "trend": 16.452667, "fair_value": 15.977885, "relative_strength": -6.240041, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.582573, "energy": 19.205125, "activity_lines": [ 16.347333, 16.027818, 16.020524, 16.203699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.17, "volume": 2174570, "typical_volume": 2099966.3, "trend": 16.419, "fair_value": 15.955, "relative_strength": -6.143686, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.49533, "energy": 17.033055, "activity_lines": [ 16.348, 16.076182, 16.029571, 16.185462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.91, "volume": 3167226, "typical_volume": 2161592.35, "trend": 16.43, "fair_value": 15.943974, "relative_strength": -2.96733, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.651615, "energy": 20.911795, "activity_lines": [ 16.508667, 16.257636, 16.113333, 16.21714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.78, "volume": 1555983, "typical_volume": 2118085.6, "trend": 16.415667, "fair_value": 15.931026, "relative_strength": -6.983829, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.849301, "energy": 23.542585, "activity_lines": [ 16.586667, 16.397455, 16.181333, 16.23972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }