{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d356233-3e78-4c5b-b97c-15e0995bc93c", "symbol": "MIVG", "name": "Mackenzie Ivy Global Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.973, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.357, "architecture_energy": 72.231, "architecture_maturity": 14.671, "architecture_confidence": 60.471, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.27, "rotation_up": 77.63, "upward_expansion": 87.55, "deceleration": 54.05, "rotation_down": 14.07, "downward_expansion": 11.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.089334, 40.671091, 39.875238, 39.340258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.060001, "trend_reference": 38.923333, "distance_from_trend": 0.080586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.879968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.019435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080678, "excess_performance": -0.039743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075148, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072948, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6900, "relative_activity": 1.822985, "balance": 1.497238, "dry_up": 1.307794, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019094, "annualized_volatility": 0.141221, "from_high_reference": -0.002135, "from_low_reference": 0.166066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.923333, "fair_value_reference": 34.879968, "structural_low": 36.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.014193, "positive_rate": 0.682927, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.001241, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.065175, "worst_return": -0.04752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.026806, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008458, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.083563, "worst_return": -0.034681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039943, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.023561, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.114855, "worst_return": -0.121339, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005668, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021801, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.396603, "energy": 90.465362, "activity_lines": [ 40.258, 39.731091, 39.003428, 38.789423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.669998, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 3965.0, "trend": 38.778, "fair_value": 34.631741, "relative_strength": -5.212748, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.988713, "energy": 89.922015, "activity_lines": [ 40.487333, 39.978363, 39.211619, 38.914817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.779999, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 3675.0, "trend": 38.800333, "fair_value": 34.705576, "relative_strength": -7.183641, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.792398, "energy": 80.574103, "activity_lines": [ 40.325999, 40.020727, 39.328238, 38.979462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.200001, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 3685.0, "trend": 38.867333, "fair_value": 34.790579, "relative_strength": -3.18538, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.189326, "energy": 67.774362, "activity_lines": [ 40.623333, 40.28709, 39.570142, 39.134279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.060001, "volume": 6900, "typical_volume": 3785.0, "trend": 38.923333, "fair_value": 34.879968, "relative_strength": -4.019435, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.356956, "energy": 72.231436, "activity_lines": [ 41.089334, 40.671091, 39.875238, 39.340258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }