{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d38c916-a701-4f83-8b05-3b2eba226173", "symbol": "W1SO34", "name": "Watsco, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.034, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.857, "architecture_energy": 88.678, "architecture_maturity": 16.261, "architecture_confidence": 74.568, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.04, "rotation_up": 8.68, "upward_expansion": 19.1, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 81.12, "downward_expansion": 92.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.288515, 77.026266, 79.684787, 80.478663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.919998, "trend_reference": 81.436929, "distance_from_trend": -0.17826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.807172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.925804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170093, "excess_performance": -0.113045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010438, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254848, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 544, "relative_activity": 15.791001, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 4.775036, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045161, "annualized_volatility": 0.469181, "from_high_reference": -0.381152, "from_low_reference": 0.039453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.436929, "fair_value_reference": 89.807172, "structural_low": 64.379997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.001175, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.405541, "worst_return": -0.227566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021155, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.004476, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.405541, "worst_return": -0.30737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.117548, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.420883, "worst_return": -0.292193, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.026208, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193384, "worst_return": -0.140967, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.302753, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079408, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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82.538225 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 74.517746, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.2, "trend": 80.503028, "fair_value": 89.274157, "relative_strength": -20.479846, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.473073, "energy": 22.669582, "activity_lines": [ 80.831249, 83.574288, 82.87004, 82.148603 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 74.517746, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.05, "trend": 80.449163, "fair_value": 89.363236, "relative_strength": -18.350196, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.512234, "energy": 52.774543, "activity_lines": [ 77.704648, 81.919949, 82.093071, 81.762456 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 81.107742, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.0, "trend": 80.68088, "fair_value": 89.43857, "relative_strength": -12.62633, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.905609, "energy": 45.544212, "activity_lines": [ 77.806862, 81.503075, 81.971811, 81.804945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 81.117722, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.0, "trend": 80.959073, "fair_value": 89.514511, "relative_strength": -12.23586, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.594023, "energy": 58.627153, "activity_lines": [ 78.505221, 81.067874, 81.849253, 81.833128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 81.117722, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.75, "trend": 81.237265, "fair_value": 89.587602, "relative_strength": -13.021839, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.74192, "energy": 31.197917, "activity_lines": [ 79.795731, 80.612352, 81.7244, 81.843363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.290001, "volume": 114, "typical_volume": 32.45, "trend": 81.454533, "fair_value": 89.662318, "relative_strength": -11.872329, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.025207, "energy": 13.716621, "activity_lines": [ 80.067153, 79.986013, 81.453673, 81.717734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32.45, "trend": 81.556447, "fair_value": 89.737034, "relative_strength": -10.936212, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.897504, "energy": 14.975023, "activity_lines": [ 80.020424, 79.5544, 81.219844, 81.578086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.290001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 32.45, "trend": 81.694615, "fair_value": 89.811751, "relative_strength": -11.711365, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.739994, "energy": 33.995925, "activity_lines": [ 79.655545, 79.317515, 81.022914, 81.431864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.919998, "volume": 544, "typical_volume": 34.45, "trend": 81.436929, "fair_value": 89.807172, "relative_strength": -21.925804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.85678, "energy": 88.67752, "activity_lines": [ 75.288515, 77.026266, 79.684787, 80.478663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }