{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d423f56-9607-4291-aeb1-b9ac6444bf4a", "symbol": "LIAE", "name": "LifeX 2050 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.338, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.031, "architecture_energy": 80.246, "architecture_maturity": 7.449, "architecture_confidence": 79.67, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.15, "rotation_up": 8.42, "upward_expansion": 19.11, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 78.35, "downward_expansion": 94.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.791583, 204.147231, 205.384077, 205.965497 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 202.9305, "trend_reference": 206.674765, "distance_from_trend": -0.018117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 203.576844, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.728363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021754, "excess_performance": -0.147379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003175, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73, "relative_activity": 0.282617, "balance": 1.314894, "dry_up": 0.777197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009291, "annualized_volatility": 0.057322, "from_high_reference": -0.043675, "from_low_reference": 0.00644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 206.674765, "fair_value_reference": 203.576844, "structural_low": 201.632054, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.024527, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024527, "worst_return": 0.024527, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.02334, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.129254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02334, "worst_return": 0.02334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.833843, "energy": 58.380883, "activity_lines": [ 205.528021, 206.172377, 206.556168, 206.869273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 202.304929, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 289.15, "trend": 206.960407, "fair_value": 203.603556, "relative_strength": -9.661248, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.194338, "energy": 77.898514, "activity_lines": [ 204.235118, 205.43989, 206.13779, 206.559798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.632054, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 274.7, "trend": 206.8138, "fair_value": 203.583439, "relative_strength": -10.591197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.291459, "energy": 85.579875, "activity_lines": [ 203.075678, 204.636295, 205.687405, 206.216033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.9305, "volume": 73, "typical_volume": 258.3, "trend": 206.674765, "fair_value": 203.576844, "relative_strength": -12.728363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.031365, "energy": 80.245929, "activity_lines": [ 202.791583, 204.147231, 205.384077, 205.965497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }