{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d444643-177a-4688-a168-535ecf6565c8", "symbol": "600163", "name": "Zhongmin Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.29, "architecture_energy": 41.762, "architecture_maturity": 38.656, "architecture_confidence": 73.436, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.38, "rotation_up": 23.12, "upward_expansion": 10.53, "deceleration": 59.25, "rotation_down": 47.96, "downward_expansion": 72.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.163333, 5.188182, 5.609478, 5.826603 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 5.981834, "distance_from_trend": -0.122343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.175278, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.199194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.093264, "excess_performance": -0.05006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98814760, "relative_activity": 0.425509, "balance": 1.383083, "dry_up": 0.578298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114287, "annualized_volatility": 0.57216, "from_high_reference": -0.404762, "from_low_reference": 0.131466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.981834, "fair_value_reference": 5.175278, "structural_low": 4.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.021413, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.003324, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.111776, "worst_return": -0.127721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.00354, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.126632, "worst_return": -0.208999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083916, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.143419, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.060026, "worst_return": -0.253264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 6.005834, "fair_value": 5.174755, "relative_strength": -8.362254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.42069, "energy": 77.143265, "activity_lines": [ 4.975763, 5.29691, 5.749335, 5.917786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.33, "volume": 114925551, "typical_volume": 241306489.6, "trend": 5.987501, "fair_value": 5.175086, "relative_strength": -4.359529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.639035, "energy": 51.956851, "activity_lines": [ 5.095235, 5.240819, 5.679835, 5.874184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 98814760, "typical_volume": 232227339.05, "trend": 5.981834, "fair_value": 5.175278, "relative_strength": -8.199194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.290097, "energy": 41.762251, "activity_lines": [ 5.163333, 5.188182, 5.609478, 5.826603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }