{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d467a2e-409c-4828-805a-721daa15f13c", "symbol": "URR", "name": "Sim Leisure Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.784, "architecture_energy": 20.515, "architecture_maturity": 86.243, "architecture_confidence": 89.765, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.5, "rotation_up": 29.28, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 27.87, "downward_expansion": 62.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.422333, 0.417364, 0.426054, 0.440061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.462921, "distance_from_trend": -0.027911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.601177, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.513414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092691, "excess_performance": -0.247526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06396, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251468, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.107692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4800, "relative_activity": 0.680851, "balance": 0.107692, "dry_up": 0.234043, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060066, "annualized_volatility": 0.597573, "from_high_reference": -0.282592, "from_low_reference": 0.285354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.462921, "fair_value_reference": 0.601177, "structural_low": 0.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029963, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.220005, "worst_return": -0.161113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059216, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.100239, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.080404, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.167712, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.181963, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.733336, "worst_return": -0.221373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.41, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 11760.0, "trend": 0.470351, "fair_value": 0.60064, "relative_strength": -31.651638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.408342, "energy": 61.050287, "activity_lines": [ 0.408333, 0.416818, 0.430536, 0.448908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.405, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 9395.0, "trend": 0.467319, "fair_value": 0.600783, "relative_strength": -32.548136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.050025, "energy": 49.944547, "activity_lines": [ 0.407667, 0.413545, 0.427084, 0.444692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 7715.0, "trend": 0.464453, "fair_value": 0.600927, "relative_strength": -31.240663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.030069, "energy": 47.84193, "activity_lines": [ 0.408667, 0.411636, 0.424564, 0.440994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 7050.0, "trend": 0.462921, "fair_value": 0.601177, "relative_strength": -24.513414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.783674, "energy": 20.514921, "activity_lines": [ 0.422333, 0.417364, 0.426054, 0.440061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }