{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d4d28bd-bda2-46bb-98ea-7e1d7abd68f3", "symbol": "GEVO", "name": "Gevo, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.99, "architecture_energy": 34.119, "architecture_maturity": 66.861, "architecture_confidence": 88.988, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.53, "rotation_up": 30.54, "upward_expansion": 21.44, "deceleration": 37.99, "rotation_down": 39.36, "downward_expansion": 73.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.925333, 26.289637, 28.104619, 29.769226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.129999, "trend_reference": 31.375667, "distance_from_trend": -0.167189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.215641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.139541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.231471, "excess_performance": -0.176804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215406, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.231471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.151402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.072749, "balance": 3.151402, "dry_up": 0.155341, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084371, "annualized_volatility": 1.162759, "from_high_reference": -0.487647, "from_low_reference": 0.151101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.375667, "fair_value_reference": 26.215641, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.00319, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.28356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.096212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.097353, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.009251, "worst_return": -0.432432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.243243, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.252834, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.26087, "worst_return": -0.420947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023269, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157097, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 106.15, "trend": 27.536, "fair_value": 81.440305, "relative_strength": -22.933382, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", 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-70.430112, "energy": 83.262882, "activity_lines": [ 25.036667, 27.097091, 30.511143, 31.600301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1132.1, "trend": 32.703333, "fair_value": 26.256603, "relative_strength": -28.750661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.261675, "energy": 78.22802, "activity_lines": [ 24.740667, 26.334364, 29.806619, 31.050387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1132.1, "trend": 32.193, "fair_value": 26.225769, "relative_strength": -28.812038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.769121, "energy": 87.893303, "activity_lines": [ 24.732001, 25.759091, 29.127381, 30.533398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.0, "volume": 593, "typical_volume": 1161.75, "trend": 31.926334, "fair_value": 26.241795, "relative_strength": -7.680021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.191609, "energy": 49.202222, "activity_lines": [ 27.114001, 26.636728, 29.169619, 30.520946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.790001, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 1164.15, "trend": 31.645334, "fair_value": 26.227628, "relative_strength": -26.174236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.102236, "energy": 39.672448, "activity_lines": [ 27.006001, 26.376182, 28.610905, 30.125054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.129999, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 1168.4, "trend": 31.375667, "fair_value": 26.215641, "relative_strength": -25.139541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.990338, "energy": 34.118966, "activity_lines": [ 26.925333, 26.289637, 28.104619, 29.769226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }