{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d50d7e6-89ef-47a9-88cb-81548ed4b1ff", "symbol": "002658", "name": "Beijing SDL Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.484, "architecture_energy": 63.304, "architecture_maturity": 31.413, "architecture_confidence": 91.112, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 13.33, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 65.1, "downward_expansion": 86.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.188, 7.426182, 7.835774, 8.209524 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.25, "trend_reference": 8.710364, "distance_from_trend": -0.167658, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.069935, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.69322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224373, "excess_performance": -0.231772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167658, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70539, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23321170, "relative_activity": 0.428801, "balance": 0.70539, "dry_up": 0.522535, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107966, "annualized_volatility": 0.519019, "from_high_reference": -0.372925, "from_low_reference": 0.083707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.710364, "fair_value_reference": 7.069935, "structural_low": 6.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.035856, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.043312, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.151915, "worst_return": -0.117576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086618, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.104267, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.261122, "worst_return": -0.136478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.130719, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.147507, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.294004, "worst_return": -0.080863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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7.486, 7.773091, 8.152583, 8.516298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.23, "volume": 31357100, "typical_volume": 57805243.4, "trend": 8.813963, "fair_value": 7.071767, "relative_strength": -15.729369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.64684, "energy": 59.951236, "activity_lines": [ 7.341333, 7.613455, 8.03146, 8.411303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 32539224, "typical_volume": 55960690.65, "trend": 8.763616, "fair_value": 7.069798, "relative_strength": -14.408769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.525197, "energy": 68.692884, "activity_lines": [ 7.232667, 7.499818, 7.924374, 8.307176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.25, "volume": 23321170, "typical_volume": 54386956.8, "trend": 8.710364, "fair_value": 7.069935, "relative_strength": -17.69322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.484344, "energy": 63.304334, "activity_lines": [ 7.188, 7.426182, 7.835774, 8.209524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }