{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d57ae74-11ec-411b-8450-18ac07d46f6f", "symbol": "ADM", "name": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.087, "architecture_energy": 57.237, "architecture_maturity": 7.648, "architecture_confidence": 85.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.54, "rotation_up": 65.32, "upward_expansion": 83.93, "deceleration": 54.43, "rotation_down": 17.33, "downward_expansion": 12.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1429.65533, 1414.349263, 1390.399513, 1356.602946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1330.0, "trend_reference": 1303.15616, "distance_from_trend": 0.020599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1123.157142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184162, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.595677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167634, "excess_performance": 0.222301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093301, "read": "Rising" 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1139.055176, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000391, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.373809, "worst_return": -0.102734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.56658, "worst_return": -0.201375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097502, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.251109, "worst_return": -0.257256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 1294.19349, "fair_value": 1124.079391, "relative_strength": 20.707548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.191167, "energy": 93.865777, "activity_lines": [ 1466.577327, 1429.10617, 1393.310298, 1354.292848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1330.0, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 100.8, "trend": 1303.15616, "fair_value": 1123.157142, "relative_strength": 7.595677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.0872, "energy": 57.237456, "activity_lines": [ 1429.65533, 1414.349263, 1390.399513, 1356.602946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }