{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d62d339-0ad0-4a44-804a-f1937bd79aa6", "symbol": "LOPE", "name": "Grand Canyon Education Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.4, "architecture_energy": 35.347, "architecture_maturity": 37.891, "architecture_confidence": 85.087, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.35, "rotation_up": 22.9, "upward_expansion": 4.01, "deceleration": 55.58, "rotation_down": 43.27, "downward_expansion": 72.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.380667, 146.519455, 150.416333, 154.136366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 152.53, "trend_reference": 159.195667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 157.067756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.752649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101284, "excess_performance": -0.288738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1463250, "relative_activity": 0.970247, "balance": 0.670576, "dry_up": 1.239306, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069147, "annualized_volatility": 0.264382, "from_high_reference": -0.316132, "from_low_reference": 0.135995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.195667, "fair_value_reference": 157.067756, "structural_low": 134.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001636, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01152, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.219818, "worst_return": -0.086324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085729, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.125636, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.348915, "worst_return": -0.083884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041977, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.166386, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.403059, "worst_return": -0.046374, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.952005, "energy": 41.343616, "activity_lines": [ 148.803333, 149.748364, 155.296143, 158.424409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 140.44, "volume": 2060607, "typical_volume": 1433467.5, "trend": 161.606667, "fair_value": 156.390064, "relative_strength": -27.705469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.611767, "energy": 44.346673, "activity_lines": [ 146.417333, 147.627273, 153.531524, 157.004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 139.94, "volume": 1801783, "typical_volume": 1453833.5, "trend": 160.66, "fair_value": 156.595449, "relative_strength": -26.315777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.953246, "energy": 45.885362, "activity_lines": [ 144.334667, 145.881636, 151.808, 155.606151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 145.34, "volume": 2150451, "typical_volume": 1500854.05, "trend": 159.991667, "fair_value": 156.79391, "relative_strength": -23.375332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.884673, "energy": 41.857551, "activity_lines": [ 144.162, 145.443636, 150.725429, 154.617763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.53, "volume": 1463250, "typical_volume": 1508120.9, "trend": 159.195667, "fair_value": 157.067756, "relative_strength": -22.752649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.400085, "energy": 35.347176, "activity_lines": [ 146.380667, 146.519455, 150.416333, 154.136366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }