{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d640921-9ced-4201-aa73-f85baae3a1f8", "symbol": "BOG", "name": "Stock3 AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.719, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.306, "architecture_energy": 10.367, "architecture_maturity": 15.615, "architecture_confidence": 50.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.81, "rotation_up": 39.6, "upward_expansion": 65.68, "deceleration": 60.32, "rotation_down": 20.55, "downward_expansion": 11.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.733333, 29.741818, 29.657143, 29.646022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.0, "trend_reference": 29.633333, "distance_from_trend": -0.021372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.701923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.997557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02027, "excess_performance": -0.08491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083593, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187, "relative_activity": 0.981112, "balance": 0.702073, "dry_up": 1.01128, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026525, "annualized_volatility": 0.235116, "from_high_reference": -0.076433, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.633333, "fair_value_reference": 23.701923, "structural_low": 26.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.035923, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.057622, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.092593, "worst_return": -0.108434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.105059, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018519, "worst_return": -0.090361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.191942, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.083934, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.37037, "worst_return": 0.013514, "sufficient": false }, { 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29.498095, 29.465806 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.0, "volume": 241, "typical_volume": 339.8, "trend": 29.286667, "fair_value": 23.249359, "relative_strength": -3.288919, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.535746, "energy": 50.320076, "activity_lines": [ 28.986666, 29.218182, 29.451428, 29.445161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.0, "volume": 528, "typical_volume": 331.25, "trend": 29.333333, "fair_value": 23.325641, "relative_strength": -4.348687, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.476695, "energy": 13.747441, "activity_lines": [ 29.32, 29.323636, 29.502857, 29.491183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.4, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 321.1, "trend": 29.406667, "fair_value": 23.403205, "relative_strength": -0.385323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.270185, "energy": 29.744911, "activity_lines": [ 29.706667, 29.501818, 29.589524, 29.56 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 302.3, "trend": 29.573333, "fair_value": 23.486539, "relative_strength": 3.186798, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.642043, "energy": 64.49107, "activity_lines": [ 30.293334, 29.818182, 29.740952, 29.675699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.4, "volume": 238, "typical_volume": 234.15, "trend": 29.62, "fair_value": 23.558974, "relative_strength": -3.702078, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.734205, "energy": 39.238166, "activity_lines": [ 30.133334, 29.778182, 29.701905, 29.664516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 226.15, "trend": 29.666667, "fair_value": 23.634615, "relative_strength": -3.588951, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.22757, "energy": 48.180666, "activity_lines": [ 30.133334, 29.850909, 29.724762, 29.689032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.0, "volume": 187, "typical_volume": 190.6, "trend": 29.633333, "fair_value": 23.701923, "relative_strength": -8.997557, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.305814, "energy": 10.36692, "activity_lines": [ 29.733333, 29.741818, 29.657143, 29.646022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }