{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d64bbfe-af10-47fb-9042-874849ee2166", "symbol": "600742", "name": "Changchun FAWAY Group Automobile Components Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.19, "architecture_energy": 56.365, "architecture_maturity": 85.839, "architecture_confidence": 70.856, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.59, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.56, "rotation_down": 47.38, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.405333, 7.397636, 7.863258, 8.368084 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.54, "trend_reference": 8.93564, "distance_from_trend": -0.156188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.452465, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.881213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217108, "excess_performance": -0.173904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.153726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31948853, "relative_activity": 1.00456, "balance": 0.153726, "dry_up": 0.976881, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056999, "annualized_volatility": 0.318146, "from_high_reference": -0.335087, "from_low_reference": 0.080229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.93564, "fair_value_reference": 8.452465, "structural_low": 6.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0181, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.018236, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.21875, "worst_return": -0.126591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001002, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032078, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.064177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038124, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015535, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.301323, "worst_return": -0.083017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.958881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.23, "volume": 25270950, "typical_volume": 43187009.25, "trend": 9.260059, "fair_value": 8.456135, "relative_strength": -24.321444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.820332, "energy": 88.590116, "activity_lines": [ 7.366667, 7.665207, 8.399654, 8.822779 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.21, "volume": 28739594, "typical_volume": 39341971.95, "trend": 9.169807, "fair_value": 8.455923, "relative_strength": -19.42617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.626414, "energy": 82.722926, "activity_lines": [ 7.285333, 7.517629, 8.22681, 8.690517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.15, "volume": 31167480, "typical_volume": 36287426.6, "trend": 9.078855, "fair_value": 8.452661, "relative_strength": -20.612646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.417441, "energy": 77.324673, "activity_lines": [ 7.23, 7.402621, 8.06486, 8.560207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.57, "volume": 32418256, "typical_volume": 34446962.1, "trend": 9.009046, "fair_value": 8.452262, "relative_strength": -15.795315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.217403, "energy": 63.775668, "activity_lines": [ 7.336667, 7.393818, 7.958863, 8.462862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.54, "volume": 31948853, "typical_volume": 31803823.05, "trend": 8.93564, "fair_value": 8.452465, "relative_strength": -17.881213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.190238, "energy": 56.365455, "activity_lines": [ 7.405333, 7.397636, 7.863258, 8.368084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }