{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d69ea32-214f-4acb-864e-9723a52a36be", "symbol": "CBSU5", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp 1-5 Sustainable UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.541, "architecture_energy": 24.464, "architecture_maturity": 77.446, "architecture_confidence": 75.089, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.37, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 55.48, "deceleration": 88.16, "rotation_down": 36.43, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.301667, 13.307336, 13.302543, 13.298008 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.33, "trend_reference": 13.293367, "distance_from_trend": 0.002756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.51763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.233218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003236, "excess_performance": -0.079647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003236, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1610, "relative_activity": 9.996895, "balance": 0.999379, "dry_up": 2.499224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002109, "annualized_volatility": 0.017753, "from_high_reference": -0.003141, "from_low_reference": 0.026648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.293367, "fair_value_reference": 12.51763, "structural_low": 13.2155, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.003348, "positive_rate": 0.741935, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": -0.006656, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.016778, "worst_return": -0.007574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009167, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018065, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.035068, "worst_return": 0.002756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027787, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028298, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.040054, "worst_return": 0.006175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 64.441112, "activity_lines": [ 13.313, 13.302091, 13.29346, 13.289237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.337, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 199.3, "trend": 13.280567, "fair_value": 12.456829, "relative_strength": -9.771289, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.127847, "energy": 73.189851, "activity_lines": [ 13.322567, 13.308845, 13.297469, 13.293152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.3175, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 114.8, "trend": 13.28455, "fair_value": 12.469162, "relative_strength": -8.462334, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.065914, "energy": 71.555163, "activity_lines": [ 13.324133, 13.311755, 13.299614, 13.295534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.308, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 114.8, "trend": 13.2876, "fair_value": 12.481367, "relative_strength": -8.970139, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.012077, "energy": 64.49762, "activity_lines": [ 13.320867, 13.312673, 13.301017, 13.297047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2685, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.55, "trend": 13.289333, "fair_value": 12.49329, "relative_strength": -8.874899, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.843782, "energy": 10.539237, "activity_lines": [ 13.302533, 13.306318, 13.298933, 13.295815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.284, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 80.55, "trend": 13.290683, "fair_value": 12.505313, "relative_strength": -8.602822, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.309336, "energy": 18.534589, "activity_lines": [ 13.292667, 13.302909, 13.298645, 13.295471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.33, "volume": 1610, "typical_volume": 161.05, "trend": 13.293367, "fair_value": 12.51763, "relative_strength": -9.233218, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.540644, "energy": 24.464296, "activity_lines": [ 13.301667, 13.307336, 13.302543, 13.298008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }