{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d6f9df0-a2ee-4b1c-884e-932e9d51c6ed", "symbol": "XIC", "name": "iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.217, "architecture_energy": 72.755, "architecture_maturity": 38.004, "architecture_confidence": 75.279, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 71.75, "upward_expansion": 88.29, "deceleration": 50.69, "rotation_down": 18.88, "downward_expansion": 12.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.944666, 56.523483, 55.750941, 54.995516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.130001, "trend_reference": 54.071736, "distance_from_trend": 0.075053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.756824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.704525, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127244, "excess_performance": 0.006823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042407, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021869, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007045, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000663, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.448933, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1745400, "relative_activity": 0.907807, "balance": 1.448933, "dry_up": 1.160947, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017308, "annualized_volatility": 0.129661, "from_high_reference": -0.001717, "from_low_reference": 0.336352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.071736, "fair_value_reference": 40.756824, "structural_low": 49.638433, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.013402, "positive_rate": 0.704545, "directional_follow_through": 0.704545, "median_excess_return": 0.002166, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.052109, "worst_return": -0.051956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.026039, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.006895, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.111393, "worst_return": -0.127104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070188, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.014854, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.195443, "worst_return": -0.147399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.845909, "energy": 80.79575, "activity_lines": [ 56.047591, 55.618693, 54.79095, 54.16318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.299999, "volume": 2983900, "typical_volume": 2141310.0, "trend": 53.479442, "fair_value": 40.241753, "relative_strength": 0.723291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.10877, "energy": 77.67903, "activity_lines": [ 56.179214, 55.814291, 55.003973, 54.358043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.459999, "volume": 1937600, "typical_volume": 2017285.0, "trend": 53.669754, "fair_value": 40.408945, "relative_strength": 0.67645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.604356, "energy": 74.828786, "activity_lines": [ 56.321333, 56.000528, 55.224245, 54.550337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.299999, "volume": 2261500, "typical_volume": 2009385.0, "trend": 53.859974, "fair_value": 40.577854, "relative_strength": 0.765278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.688139, "energy": 57.228405, "activity_lines": [ 56.346666, 56.109261, 55.411148, 54.72003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.130001, "volume": 1745400, "typical_volume": 1922655.0, "trend": 54.071736, "fair_value": 40.756824, "relative_strength": 0.704525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.217156, "energy": 72.755372, "activity_lines": [ 56.944666, 56.523483, 55.750941, 54.995516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }