{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d70ffa6-a6b5-4374-9d71-d6c624d0df20", "symbol": "MOGU", "name": "MOGU Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.887, "architecture_energy": 27.241, "architecture_maturity": 38.133, "architecture_confidence": 93.066, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 2.32, "deceleration": 51.25, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 73.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.931333, 1.942909, 2.019558, 2.097691 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.87, "trend_reference": 2.178097, "distance_from_trend": -0.141452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.26389, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.959461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224066, "excess_performance": -0.349691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171787, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.329595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224066, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26920, "relative_activity": 0.481722, "balance": 0.547568, "dry_up": 0.461027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.209247, "annualized_volatility": 0.674776, "from_high_reference": -0.769136, "from_low_reference": 0.472441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.178097, "fair_value_reference": 2.26389, "structural_low": 1.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008439, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.006984, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.421818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.01654, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.060873, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.644231, "worst_return": -0.627627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.120949, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.026711, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.756667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369388, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078818, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.88, "volume": 62295, "typical_volume": 56851.6, "trend": 2.46453, "fair_value": 10.872388, "relative_strength": -28.631969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"direction": -49.77748, "energy": 28.260913, "activity_lines": [ 1.979333, 1.994909, 2.109994, 2.172393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.9, "volume": 31938, "typical_volume": 55764.1, "trend": 2.215597, "fair_value": 2.264474, "relative_strength": -30.312611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.724143, "energy": 30.629869, "activity_lines": [ 1.958667, 1.970909, 2.082909, 2.150699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.89, "volume": 10170, "typical_volume": 54662.2, "trend": 2.195263, "fair_value": 2.261903, "relative_strength": -29.90396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.281217, "energy": 26.087238, "activity_lines": [ 1.935333, 1.952182, 2.057205, 2.129692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 34026, "typical_volume": 55392.85, "trend": 2.190763, "fair_value": 2.261198, "relative_strength": -25.531052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.595779, "energy": 19.657581, "activity_lines": [ 1.97, 1.961273, 2.045215, 2.118385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.87, "volume": 26920, "typical_volume": 55882.8, "trend": 2.178097, "fair_value": 2.26389, "relative_strength": -32.959461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.886558, "energy": 27.241285, "activity_lines": [ 1.931333, 1.942909, 2.019558, 2.097691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }