{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5d72f10e-5b62-43ae-9098-e4adb71ed343",
    "symbol": "BILN",
    "name": "Billington Holdings Plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.755,
    "architecture_energy": 48.665,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.451,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.894,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 16.58,
        "rotation_up": 58.52,
        "upward_expansion": 80.11,
        "deceleration": 54.48,
        "rotation_down": 19.07,
        "downward_expansion": 6.78
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.193333,
        4.154091,
        4.081364,
        3.988028
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 4.25,
    "trend_reference": 3.891799,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.09204,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.855035,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102454,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 9.464934,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.126785,
    "excess_performance": 0.07555,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09204,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087724,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102454,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043939,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094649,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025172,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126785,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.019961,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 88537,
      "relative_activity": 0.935232,
      "balance": 1.019961,
      "dry_up": 1.121041,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.049214,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.197068,
      "from_high_reference": -0.076087,
      "from_low_reference": 0.873946
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.891799,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.855035,
      "structural_low": 3.212106,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.015152,
        "positive_rate": 0.588235,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.588235,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010256,
        "regime_survival": 0.764706,
        "best_return": 0.255555,
        "worst_return": -0.166002,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.044304,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.068331,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.37931,
        "worst_return": -0.051647,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.236907,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.166728,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.308072,
        "worst_return": -0.040385,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.363986,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.322181,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.541016,
        "worst_return": 0.186955,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.083176,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.030928,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027778,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
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        "return": 0.22276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.193333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015873,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007353,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.054422,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.088608,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.078097,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 98573.25,
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        "relative_strength": 12.371785,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 71.876744,
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          3.99967,
          3.92033
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 142984,
        "typical_volume": 98074.35,
        "trend": 3.842996,
        "fair_value": 3.839902,
        "relative_strength": 9.698451,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 62.887187,
        "energy": 48.799855,
        "activity_lines": [
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          3.945278
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.125,
        "volume": 52524,
        "typical_volume": 94850.35,
        "trend": 3.86937,
        "fair_value": 3.846652,
        "relative_strength": 6.532995,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.74694,
        "energy": 40.346069,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.158333,
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          4.051267,
          3.963472
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.25,
        "volume": 88537,
        "typical_volume": 94668.5,
        "trend": 3.891799,
        "fair_value": 3.855035,
        "relative_strength": 9.464934,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.755443,
        "energy": 48.665294,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.193333,
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          4.081364,
          3.988028
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}