{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d76b70f-a73b-4a99-b340-04b11a3bb159", "symbol": "QES", "name": "China Sunsine Chemical Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.3, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.543, "architecture_energy": 11.106, "architecture_maturity": 29.826, "architecture_confidence": 51.867, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.75, "rotation_up": 33.76, "upward_expansion": 35.9, "deceleration": 63.74, "rotation_down": 29.85, "downward_expansion": 16.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.676, 0.675727, 0.671485, 0.66837 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.675, "trend_reference": 0.674271, "distance_from_trend": 0.00108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.499868, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.221812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044513, "excess_performance": -0.199348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037192, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.800478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1372100, "relative_activity": 0.806484, "balance": 1.800478, "dry_up": 0.666021, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032479, "annualized_volatility": 0.227053, "from_high_reference": -0.168896, "from_low_reference": 0.151284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.674271, "fair_value_reference": 0.499868, "structural_low": 0.586302, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.007407, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.009538, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.038959, "worst_return": -0.081633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028194, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.028779, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.063293, "worst_return": -0.094342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038096, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.050915, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.238265, "worst_return": -0.044513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192961, "worst_return": -0.090417, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066665, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.558254, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"typical_volume": 2639610.0, "trend": 0.683497, "fair_value": 0.493167, "relative_strength": -18.391249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.390753, "energy": 13.937593, "activity_lines": [ 0.677, 0.673273, 0.666095, 0.669138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.68, "volume": 1050200, "typical_volume": 2102890.0, "trend": 0.681013, "fair_value": 0.495295, "relative_strength": -17.969963, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.468129, "energy": 13.763047, "activity_lines": [ 0.678, 0.674636, 0.668411, 0.668913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.675, "volume": 1173600, "typical_volume": 1831930.0, "trend": 0.677402, "fair_value": 0.497581, "relative_strength": -18.648733, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.767937, "energy": 9.208732, "activity_lines": [ 0.677, 0.675273, 0.670102, 0.668525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.675, "volume": 1372100, "typical_volume": 1701335.0, "trend": 0.674271, "fair_value": 0.499868, "relative_strength": -19.221812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.542878, "energy": 11.106129, "activity_lines": [ 0.676, 0.675727, 0.671485, 0.66837 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }