{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d86d8b3-196f-4ded-9a21-0aafe98ff43f", "symbol": "GMS", "name": "Gulf Marine Services PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.299, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.251, "architecture_energy": 15.892, "architecture_maturity": 13.359, "architecture_confidence": 63.854, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.07, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 56.32, "rotation_down": 41.01, "downward_expansion": 64.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.187867, 0.187687, 0.189622, 0.191676 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.1922, "trend_reference": 0.197663, "distance_from_trend": -0.02764, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.173288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.220548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190737, "excess_performance": -0.241972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035682, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095309, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4229391, "relative_activity": 0.392858, "balance": 1.139326, "dry_up": 0.51534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083563, "annualized_volatility": 0.481458, "from_high_reference": -0.209053, "from_low_reference": 0.31105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.197663, "fair_value_reference": 0.173288, "structural_low": 0.1561, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.019446, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.013568, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.36039, "worst_return": -0.194139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.082283, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.421769, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.435374, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.295015, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.888889, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.1918, "volume": 8097645, "typical_volume": 16938823.1, "trend": 0.19852, "fair_value": 0.17135, "relative_strength": -3.174505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.221415, "energy": 31.53588, "activity_lines": [ 0.188013, 0.189153, 0.190257, 0.19393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1836, "volume": 4982111, "typical_volume": 14099209.85, "trend": 0.19838, "fair_value": 0.171976, "relative_strength": -7.998172, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.242185, "energy": 34.355386, "activity_lines": [ 0.186173, 0.187891, 0.189749, 0.192968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1844, "volume": 4882820, "typical_volume": 12744544.1, "trend": 0.19824, "fair_value": 0.172613, "relative_strength": -8.204186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.659789, "energy": 28.503494, "activity_lines": [ 0.185653, 0.186993, 0.189346, 0.192066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1922, "volume": 4229391, "typical_volume": 10765694.5, "trend": 0.197663, "fair_value": 0.173288, "relative_strength": -4.220548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.25124, "energy": 15.892481, "activity_lines": [ 0.187867, 0.187687, 0.189622, 0.191676 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }