{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d8adb4b-b9f3-41c7-bbb7-96d6cd08a6f0", "symbol": "AORT", "name": "Artivion Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.403, "architecture_energy": 27.423, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.046, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.47, "rotation_up": 34.0, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 54.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.198, 24.964545, 25.258476, 27.663634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.12, "trend_reference": 31.264, "distance_from_trend": -0.132549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.969359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.638172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.314979, "excess_performance": -0.440603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187449, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030367, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04048, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064306, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.499921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4589526, "relative_activity": 1.374764, "balance": 1.499921, "dry_up": 0.951032, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094161, "annualized_volatility": 0.608404, "from_high_reference": -0.437927, "from_low_reference": 0.415449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.264, "fair_value_reference": 27.969359, "structural_low": 19.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0352, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.029442, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.355589, "worst_return": -0.387186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074202, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.00048, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.34617, "worst_return": -0.456803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.419611, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.239999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.765191, "worst_return": 0.018833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.346343, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.267819, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.06, "volume": 619883, "typical_volume": 727210.85, "trend": 14.591667, "fair_value": 19.454038, "relative_strength": 3.87026, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.282093, "energy": 26.443642, "activity_lines": [ 24.697333, 23.528364, 25.472286, 28.329075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.83, "volume": 3029841, "typical_volume": 3193821.6, "trend": 31.838333, "fair_value": 27.903782, "relative_strength": -33.776409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.804444, "energy": 23.210803, "activity_lines": [ 25.506667, 24.259818, 25.32881, 27.968043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.12, "volume": 4589526, "typical_volume": 3338410.4, "trend": 31.264, "fair_value": 27.969359, "relative_strength": -34.638172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.402621, "energy": 27.422986, "activity_lines": [ 26.198, 24.964545, 25.258476, 27.663634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }