{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d8b5dc6-e740-408e-8d8a-015e524c50da", "symbol": "SMCY", "name": "YIELDMAX SMCI OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.819, "architecture_energy": 33.189, "architecture_maturity": 25.03, "architecture_confidence": 89.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.47, "rotation_up": 17.12, "upward_expansion": 3.29, "deceleration": 54.78, "rotation_down": 50.93, "downward_expansion": 74.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.509982, 4.558025, 4.975965, 5.08887 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.72, "trend_reference": 5.287821, "distance_from_trend": -0.107383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.81465, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.352215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236882, "excess_performance": -0.362507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3533997, "relative_activity": 0.683782, "balance": 0.541228, "dry_up": 0.768247, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.203296, "annualized_volatility": 0.954853, "from_high_reference": -0.505387, "from_low_reference": 0.240074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.287821, "fair_value_reference": 6.81465, "structural_low": 3.806223, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04373, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011163, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.288816, "worst_return": -0.09781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.202407, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202407, "worst_return": 0.202407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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5.236654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.658401, "volume": 4979999, "typical_volume": 5547461.05, "trend": 5.366439, "fair_value": 6.860462, "relative_strength": -31.457765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.90622, "energy": 58.68879, "activity_lines": [ 4.400582, 4.757217, 5.072555, 5.188702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.419704, "volume": 4145758, "typical_volume": 5550015.0, "trend": 5.32067, "fair_value": 6.835808, "relative_strength": -34.346407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.970283, "energy": 41.754801, "activity_lines": [ 4.391293, 4.616555, 5.006452, 5.127623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.72, "volume": 3533997, "typical_volume": 5168310.25, "trend": 5.287821, "fair_value": 6.81465, "relative_strength": -31.352215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.819263, "energy": 33.188896, "activity_lines": [ 4.509982, 4.558025, 4.975965, 5.08887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }