{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d921429-1564-4241-b7aa-8b8392a5bfef", "symbol": "3339", "name": "Tekcore Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.138, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.148, "architecture_energy": 41.14, "architecture_maturity": 12.306, "architecture_confidence": 61.281, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.61, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 15.42, "deceleration": 48.06, "rotation_down": 57.34, "downward_expansion": 54.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.126666, 37.586364, 42.044762, 42.294839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.200001, "trend_reference": 40.383334, "distance_from_trend": -0.078828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.61859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.450369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.345389, "excess_performance": -0.095983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175824, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.345389, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.135775, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7203088, "relative_activity": 0.446201, "balance": 1.135775, "dry_up": 0.450345, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192825, "annualized_volatility": 0.993675, "from_high_reference": -0.488308, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.383334, "fair_value_reference": 33.61859, "structural_low": 24.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011796, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05571, "worst_return": -0.180157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011962, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.089573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368571, "worst_return": -0.344648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.122693, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.091429, "worst_return": -0.336815, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.160634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196104, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.188164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039785, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.297851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117117, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.55, "volume": 1621000, "typical_volume": 1400550.0, "trend": 13.961667, "fair_value": 15.730157, "relative_strength": 4.201072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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46.546905, 43.444194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.200001, "volume": 6236370, "typical_volume": 19068671.95, "trend": 39.033334, "fair_value": 33.11282, "relative_strength": -23.547471, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.473354, "energy": 22.408349, "activity_lines": [ 39.790001, 42.420909, 45.745, 43.28785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.299999, "volume": 3106529, "typical_volume": 19035047.25, "trend": 39.368334, "fair_value": 33.23782, "relative_strength": -28.365227, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.467512, "energy": 48.490415, "activity_lines": [ 37.25, 40.594545, 44.723095, 42.982473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 3711605, "typical_volume": 18255697.6, "trend": 39.59, "fair_value": 33.354167, "relative_strength": -28.834668, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.582829, "energy": 54.965004, "activity_lines": [ 35.403333, 38.836363, 43.569762, 42.590968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 15058705, "typical_volume": 18037660.45, "trend": 40.0, "fair_value": 33.489743, "relative_strength": -20.41549, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.355203, "energy": 47.898262, "activity_lines": [ 35.713333, 38.203636, 42.847381, 42.475484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.200001, "volume": 7203088, "typical_volume": 16143156.25, "trend": 40.383334, "fair_value": 33.61859, "relative_strength": -23.450369, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.147722, "energy": 41.140442, "activity_lines": [ 36.126666, 37.586364, 42.044762, 42.294839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }