{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d981e58-f1a9-4c5f-9a8e-5e8d496be1c4", "symbol": "SUSCO", "name": "Susco Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.525, "architecture_energy": 57.296, "architecture_maturity": 11.573, "architecture_confidence": 58.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.69, "rotation_up": 73.99, "upward_expansion": 83.97, "deceleration": 52.23, "rotation_down": 11.04, "downward_expansion": 8.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.26, 2.226182, 2.161238, 2.141193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.28, "trend_reference": 2.131519, "distance_from_trend": 0.06966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.875228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.571649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05153, "excess_performance": -0.140795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098328, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134192, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.830488, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6647800, "relative_activity": 1.689901, "balance": 2.830488, "dry_up": 1.604202, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039136, "annualized_volatility": 0.205341, "from_high_reference": -0.130314, "from_low_reference": 0.156683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.131519, "fair_value_reference": 2.875228, "structural_low": 1.990865, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.026123, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.001318, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.247966, "worst_return": -0.11068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036586, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.026681, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.253053, "worst_return": -0.174823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127804, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.095133, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318796, "worst_return": -0.231581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.192362, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.524221, "worst_return": -0.232143, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055046, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.08034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.12343, "volume": 41393100, "typical_volume": 10432955.0, "trend": 2.929922, "fair_value": 2.585871, "relative_strength": 5.284582, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.40698, "energy": 86.106925, "activity_lines": [ 2.230667, 2.168, 2.118048, 2.115077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.26, "volume": 5662100, "typical_volume": 3986105.0, "trend": 2.118843, "fair_value": 2.884739, "relative_strength": -14.207613, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.382259, "energy": 80.938139, "activity_lines": [ 2.253333, 2.192364, 2.134, 2.124635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.22, "volume": 2791800, "typical_volume": 3854940.0, "trend": 2.12451, "fair_value": 2.879896, "relative_strength": -14.097108, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.176355, "energy": 73.310918, "activity_lines": [ 2.250667, 2.205455, 2.145143, 2.131161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.28, "volume": 6647800, "typical_volume": 3933840.0, "trend": 2.131519, "fair_value": 2.875228, "relative_strength": -10.571649, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.525385, "energy": 57.295531, "activity_lines": [ 2.26, 2.226182, 2.161238, 2.141193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }