{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d9b92b2-a686-4095-91f6-59a800d35c2b", "symbol": "300778", "name": "Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning & Architectural Design Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.249, "architecture_energy": 37.296, "architecture_maturity": 63.118, "architecture_confidence": 62.493, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.76, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 17.03, "deceleration": 66.26, "rotation_down": 39.52, "downward_expansion": 64.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.910667, 9.808364, 10.69481, 11.362581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.52, "trend_reference": 12.250333, "distance_from_trend": -0.141248, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.465192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.406026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.250178, "excess_performance": -0.257578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250178, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17105788, "relative_activity": 0.814675, "balance": 0.699094, "dry_up": 0.916284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123355, "annualized_volatility": 0.496787, "from_high_reference": -0.41588, "from_low_reference": 0.236193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.250333, "fair_value_reference": 12.465192, "structural_low": 8.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.026467, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017651, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.67399, "worst_return": -0.190252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022817, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023442, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.615875, "worst_return": -0.152157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091184, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081858, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.881569, "worst_return": -0.29819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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90.150299, "activity_lines": [ 9.971333, 11.187455, 11.973762, 12.467398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.01, "volume": 8862574, "typical_volume": 25075156.9, "trend": 12.826667, "fair_value": 12.66874, "relative_strength": -36.432779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.694888, "energy": 82.949349, "activity_lines": [ 9.813333, 10.837818, 11.721857, 12.278194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.51, "volume": 22878260, "typical_volume": 24321111.85, "trend": 12.687667, "fair_value": 12.620397, "relative_strength": -36.568331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.463051, "energy": 81.189119, "activity_lines": [ 9.627333, 10.443818, 11.44419, 12.064215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.63, "volume": 21695481, "typical_volume": 23112534.75, "trend": 12.580333, "fair_value": 12.582261, "relative_strength": -28.042395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.312913, "energy": 69.934593, "activity_lines": [ 9.594, 10.136, 11.20481, 11.866946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.95, "volume": 18834956, "typical_volume": 21650456.95, "trend": 12.455, "fair_value": 12.544321, "relative_strength": -32.342926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.643369, "energy": 57.494011, "activity_lines": [ 9.382667, 9.776545, 10.928762, 11.632731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.11, "volume": 19320887, "typical_volume": 21029915.45, "trend": 12.362333, "fair_value": 12.511731, "relative_strength": -21.440442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.879991, "energy": 48.871265, "activity_lines": [ 9.618, 9.725273, 10.784571, 11.481441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.52, "volume": 17105788, "typical_volume": 20997078.1, "trend": 12.250333, "fair_value": 12.465192, "relative_strength": -21.406026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.249414, "energy": 37.296262, "activity_lines": [ 9.910667, 9.808364, 10.69481, 11.362581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }