{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d9bda13-0777-49f4-94c2-a87a9f8ee88c", "symbol": "CD", "name": "Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.512, "architecture_energy": 68.61, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.03, "rotation_up": 10.27, "upward_expansion": 14.74, "deceleration": 38.04, "rotation_down": 76.04, "downward_expansion": 92.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 3.403182, 4.474071, 4.710032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.65, "trend_reference": 4.978833, "distance_from_trend": -0.467747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.417624, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -67.865909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.52509, "excess_performance": -0.712543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.467747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.897831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.678659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.52509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129963, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 933549, "relative_activity": 0.945906, "balance": 0.129963, "dry_up": 0.781535, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.596798, "annualized_volatility": 1.24922, "from_high_reference": -0.92793, "from_low_reference": 0.104167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.978833, "fair_value_reference": 4.417624, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.040154, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.00804, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.694545, "worst_return": -0.375312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.060408, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141442, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 4.371901, "worst_return": -0.565079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113702, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.085143, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 3.288344, "worst_return": -0.732053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.272265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.426058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.524797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105079, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", 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"relative_strength": -59.563106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.226003, "energy": 42.835453, "activity_lines": [ 4.197333, 5.051727, 5.332833, 5.300527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.1, "volume": 787840, "typical_volume": 1010785.55, "trend": 5.200167, "fair_value": 4.399419, "relative_strength": -61.338567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.107421, "energy": 64.715316, "activity_lines": [ 3.760333, 4.568364, 5.121476, 5.160366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.94, "volume": 794404, "typical_volume": 991488.85, "trend": 5.107833, "fair_value": 4.405316, "relative_strength": -62.707728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.387, "energy": 67.826054, "activity_lines": [ 3.38, 4.113909, 4.908071, 5.014548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 569510, "typical_volume": 986660.1, "trend": 5.052167, "fair_value": 4.411085, "relative_strength": -64.60177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.207022, "energy": 69.26146, "activity_lines": [ 3.074667, 3.729455, 4.693143, 4.865011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.65, "volume": 933549, "typical_volume": 986936.55, "trend": 4.978833, "fair_value": 4.417624, "relative_strength": -67.865909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.511627, "energy": 68.609945, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 3.403182, 4.474071, 4.710032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }