{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d9d8c8b-acf2-4c5d-a46b-690d1c300133", "symbol": "MRK", "name": "Marks Electrical Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.447, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.698, "architecture_energy": 41.472, "architecture_maturity": 4.772, "architecture_confidence": 92.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.55, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 5.88, "deceleration": 48.19, "rotation_down": 50.53, "downward_expansion": 74.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.455, 0.456909, 0.467595, 0.470247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.455, "trend_reference": 0.471333, "distance_from_trend": -0.034653, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.612855, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.5321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021505, "excess_performance": -0.072741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100063, "relative_activity": 0.899633, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.285685, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03415, "annualized_volatility": 0.126654, "from_high_reference": -0.272, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.471333, "fair_value_reference": 0.612855, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003521, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030034, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.064747, "worst_return": -0.227777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.079208, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.119721, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.066666, "worst_return": -0.216666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.120407, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.219021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123809, "worst_return": -0.249151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 7056, "typical_volume": 113364.35, "trend": 0.472167, "fair_value": 0.62512, "relative_strength": -14.648001, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.774921, "energy": 53.682831, "activity_lines": [ 0.457333, 0.468364, 0.475452, 0.474613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.455, "volume": 3292, "typical_volume": 113315.5, "trend": 0.472, "fair_value": 0.622248, "relative_strength": -14.600498, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.13935, "energy": 58.999005, "activity_lines": [ 0.455, 0.464545, 0.473381, 0.473505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.455, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 113006.45, "trend": 0.471833, "fair_value": 0.619097, "relative_strength": -14.882677, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.624778, "energy": 54.613219, "activity_lines": [ 0.455, 0.461364, 0.471381, 0.472409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.455, "volume": 19248, "typical_volume": 113050.4, "trend": 0.471667, "fair_value": 0.616101, "relative_strength": -15.100896, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.344606, "energy": 53.001634, "activity_lines": [ 0.455, 0.458818, 0.469452, 0.471323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.455, "volume": 100063, "typical_volume": 111226.5, "trend": 0.471333, "fair_value": 0.612855, "relative_strength": -14.5321, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.697816, "energy": 41.471879, "activity_lines": [ 0.455, 0.456909, 0.467595, 0.470247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }