{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5d9fd1a6-b889-4db4-9a3e-d65911b661bd", "symbol": "603569", "name": "Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.15, "architecture_energy": 28.305, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.804, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.19, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 21.02, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 28.18, "downward_expansion": 57.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.67, 5.606592, 5.744974, 6.030531 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.73, "trend_reference": 6.482108, "distance_from_trend": -0.116028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.238395, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.490597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.225676, "excess_performance": -0.182472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.304476, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17311310, "relative_activity": 0.945507, "balance": 0.417504, "dry_up": 1.203439, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066988, "annualized_volatility": 0.295771, "from_high_reference": -0.439341, "from_low_reference": 0.106178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.482108, "fair_value_reference": 8.238395, "structural_low": 5.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.007377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027398, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.151844, "worst_return": -0.148883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062408, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.440476, "worst_return": -0.274807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072059, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.082184, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.695238, "worst_return": -0.232625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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18413922, "typical_volume": 18626820.25, "trend": 6.546108, "fair_value": 8.27533, "relative_strength": -18.567546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.292516, "energy": 36.68252, "activity_lines": [ 5.626, 5.580847, 5.772513, 6.083183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.73, "volume": 17311310, "typical_volume": 18309022.75, "trend": 6.482108, "fair_value": 8.238395, "relative_strength": -20.490597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.14972, "energy": 28.305323, "activity_lines": [ 5.67, 5.606592, 5.744974, 6.030531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }