{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5db6e8dc-89ad-4cca-961a-71c64e94081c",
    "symbol": "SMICHA",
    "name": "UBS SMI ETF CHF dis",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.146,
    "architecture_energy": 69.141,
    "architecture_maturity": 35.347,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.501,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.21,
        "rotation_up": 70.1,
        "upward_expansion": 90.0,
        "deceleration": 53.58,
        "rotation_down": 22.05,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        148.363997,
        147.225088,
        143.620424,
        140.906635
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 149.839996,
    "trend_reference": 138.046771,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.085429,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 120.244387,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246129,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.755412,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.107464,
    "excess_performance": 0.024581,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085429,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039954,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.246129,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094928,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017554,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006161,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.107464,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 6.96088,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 107431,
      "relative_activity": 0.57608,
      "balance": 6.96088,
      "dry_up": 1.131767,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021099,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.152999,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007025,
      "from_low_reference": 0.264654
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 138.046771,
      "fair_value_reference": 120.244387,
      "structural_low": 122.235705,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.005999,
        "positive_rate": 0.62069,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.62069,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000745,
        "regime_survival": 0.689655,
        "best_return": 0.048777,
        "worst_return": -0.095952,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.007319,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006134,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.061491,
        "worst_return": -0.029519,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.042525,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02175,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.08623,
        "worst_return": -0.10148,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.059388,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030601,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.153546,
        "worst_return": -0.063271,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 208025.0,
        "trend": 135.429156,
        "fair_value": 118.88149,
        "relative_strength": 2.063279,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 209731.9,
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        "fair_value": 119.149452,
        "relative_strength": 2.068368,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 72.749756,
        "energy": 88.941993,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 147.619995,
        "volume": 322524,
        "typical_volume": 212429.7,
        "trend": 136.54519,
        "fair_value": 119.417275,
        "relative_strength": 1.821749,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.123788,
        "energy": 89.751147,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 147.679993,
        "volume": 207125,
        "typical_volume": 205001.25,
        "trend": 137.041809,
        "fair_value": 119.67855,
        "relative_strength": 1.923538,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.360556,
        "energy": 86.840705,
        "activity_lines": [
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          139.418701
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 147.800003,
        "volume": 207156,
        "typical_volume": 197665.45,
        "trend": 137.535215,
        "fair_value": 119.954578,
        "relative_strength": 1.81643,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.210351,
        "energy": 70.87109,
        "activity_lines": [
          147.651998,
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          142.591683,
          140.112778
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 149.839996,
        "volume": 107431,
        "typical_volume": 186486.2,
        "trend": 138.046771,
        "fair_value": 120.244387,
        "relative_strength": 1.755412,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.146053,
        "energy": 69.140726,
        "activity_lines": [
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          140.906635
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}